$SHELL rose 75.6% over the past 24 hours. Chase the rally or go short? Let’s look at the historical data first.
I analyzed Binance USDT perpetual contract daily candles since 2022 (920 contracts, including traditional finance contracts and 164 delisted ones): a daily gain of ≥50% occurred 793 times in total. From the next day’s open:
- After 1 day: median −7.3%; 35% were up
- After 3 days: median −14.3%; 32% were up
- After 7 days: median −21.4%; 27% were up
- 7-day return distribution: 10th percentile −53.6%; 90th percentile +43.5%
In the historical sample, about 73% of cases were below the next day’s opening price a week later. But shorting wasn’t easy either: in 14% of cases, the price was more than 30% above the next day’s open after 7 days—a move that highly leveraged shorts might not survive.
Now for the cost of holding: $SHELL ’s current funding rate is 0.0028% / 4 hours (longs pay shorts). If the rate and settlement interval remain unchanged, the estimated funding cost for holding a notional long position for one day is about 0.02%.
A few notes: many coins often surge or crash together on the same day, so these events are not independent; the calculations exclude trading fees and funding fees; returns are calculated from daily close to close, which differs slightly from the basis used for rolling 24-hour returns; past performance does not predict future results.
How do you usually handle coins that surge like this: avoid them, chase with a small position, or wait for a pullback?
#合约交易 #Altcoins
Data collected: 2026-11-14 10:34 CST; source: Binance public market data.
This is not investment advice.
I analyzed Binance USDT perpetual contract daily candles since 2022 (920 contracts, including traditional finance contracts and 164 delisted ones): a daily gain of ≥50% occurred 793 times in total. From the next day’s open:
- After 1 day: median −7.3%; 35% were up
- After 3 days: median −14.3%; 32% were up
- After 7 days: median −21.4%; 27% were up
- 7-day return distribution: 10th percentile −53.6%; 90th percentile +43.5%
In the historical sample, about 73% of cases were below the next day’s opening price a week later. But shorting wasn’t easy either: in 14% of cases, the price was more than 30% above the next day’s open after 7 days—a move that highly leveraged shorts might not survive.
Now for the cost of holding: $SHELL ’s current funding rate is 0.0028% / 4 hours (longs pay shorts). If the rate and settlement interval remain unchanged, the estimated funding cost for holding a notional long position for one day is about 0.02%.
A few notes: many coins often surge or crash together on the same day, so these events are not independent; the calculations exclude trading fees and funding fees; returns are calculated from daily close to close, which differs slightly from the basis used for rolling 24-hour returns; past performance does not predict future results.
How do you usually handle coins that surge like this: avoid them, chase with a small position, or wait for a pullback?
#合约交易 #Altcoins
Data collected: 2026-11-14 10:34 CST; source: Binance public market data.
This is not investment advice.
