#BTC Market Analysis 11/14
PPI cooled, so why is Bitcoin still falling? Guys, did those waiting to buy the dip on good news just get taught another lesson?
Yesterday I said to watch 70,000 for the remaining short position. It hit 70,000, then bottomed at 67,468! Those who took profits according to plan must be feeling great about this move, right? But we never got the new short-entry zone at 73,100–73,700—a shame.
1. Still bearish today, but don’t chase at 68,200
The daily price is still below the EMA200, around 76,300, and the four-hour EMA21 has dropped to 71,500. The trend hasn’t turned bullish.
Over the past 24 hours, the price fell about 3.7%, while Bybit OI also dropped about 4.77%. This suggests the decline involved significant deleveraging, rather than shorts continuously adding positions, so watch for a short-term rebound.
Last night, PPI rose 0.3% month over month. The pace has slowed, but it’s still up 6.5% year over year, so it’s too early to say inflationary pressure has eased.
2. Wait to short a rebound above; below, only consider a quick rebound trade
The 70,000 target has been reached, and you can keep taking profits on the remaining old shorts. Don’t let those gains slip away again.
The main plan is still to wait for a rebound into 69,500–70,300 to meet resistance, then short a small position if the one-hour candle closes back below 69,500. Set a stop-loss at 71,400 and initially target 67,500. If the price breaks below 67,400 and can’t reclaim it on a rebound, then look to 66,000. If the four-hour candle closes back above 71,000 and holds on a retest, cancel the new short plan.
If you want to go long, wait for a retest of 67,400–67,800. After a dip, go long with a small position only if the price reclaims 68,000 and the one-hour candle closes above it. Set a stop-loss at 66,800 and take profit in stages at 69,500–70,000. If the price drops straight through 67,400 and can’t reclaim it on a rebound, stay out.
This is a countertrend rebound trade, not a trend reversal. Handle the old shorts first, then consider longs. Don’t trade both sides at once.
One last reminder: yesterday’s low has already rebounded nearly 2,700 points. Don’t assume it’ll bounce again if it retests that low. Weekend price action can bring sharp wicks, so wait near 68,200—don’t chase back and forth in the middle.
Personal trading analysis, not investment advice.
PPI cooled, so why is Bitcoin still falling? Guys, did those waiting to buy the dip on good news just get taught another lesson?
Yesterday I said to watch 70,000 for the remaining short position. It hit 70,000, then bottomed at 67,468! Those who took profits according to plan must be feeling great about this move, right? But we never got the new short-entry zone at 73,100–73,700—a shame.
1. Still bearish today, but don’t chase at 68,200
The daily price is still below the EMA200, around 76,300, and the four-hour EMA21 has dropped to 71,500. The trend hasn’t turned bullish.
Over the past 24 hours, the price fell about 3.7%, while Bybit OI also dropped about 4.77%. This suggests the decline involved significant deleveraging, rather than shorts continuously adding positions, so watch for a short-term rebound.
Last night, PPI rose 0.3% month over month. The pace has slowed, but it’s still up 6.5% year over year, so it’s too early to say inflationary pressure has eased.
2. Wait to short a rebound above; below, only consider a quick rebound trade
The 70,000 target has been reached, and you can keep taking profits on the remaining old shorts. Don’t let those gains slip away again.
The main plan is still to wait for a rebound into 69,500–70,300 to meet resistance, then short a small position if the one-hour candle closes back below 69,500. Set a stop-loss at 71,400 and initially target 67,500. If the price breaks below 67,400 and can’t reclaim it on a rebound, then look to 66,000. If the four-hour candle closes back above 71,000 and holds on a retest, cancel the new short plan.
If you want to go long, wait for a retest of 67,400–67,800. After a dip, go long with a small position only if the price reclaims 68,000 and the one-hour candle closes above it. Set a stop-loss at 66,800 and take profit in stages at 69,500–70,000. If the price drops straight through 67,400 and can’t reclaim it on a rebound, stay out.
This is a countertrend rebound trade, not a trend reversal. Handle the old shorts first, then consider longs. Don’t trade both sides at once.
One last reminder: yesterday’s low has already rebounded nearly 2,700 points. Don’t assume it’ll bounce again if it retests that low. Weekend price action can bring sharp wicks, so wait near 68,200—don’t chase back and forth in the middle.
Personal trading analysis, not investment advice.
