Global M2 just stalled — sitting near $138T but the YoY change is rolling over hard. Down to $9.73T after peaking in Feb 2026, and that's the part that matters.
Every time Global M2 YoY went negative, $BTC bottomed: 2015, 2018, 2022. We're not there yet — still positive — but the deceleration alone is a headwind. Liquidity momentum drives risk assets, and that momentum is fading.
This isn't a crash call, it's a cycle read. When the YoY flips negative, that's when you start watching for the real floor. Until then, expect chop and less upside fuel.
Every time Global M2 YoY went negative, $BTC bottomed: 2015, 2018, 2022. We're not there yet — still positive — but the deceleration alone is a headwind. Liquidity momentum drives risk assets, and that momentum is fading.
This isn't a crash call, it's a cycle read. When the YoY flips negative, that's when you start watching for the real floor. Until then, expect chop and less upside fuel.
