Bitcoin has given up $70,000. At 69.3K, it’s down 6% in a day, hitting a low of 68.9K—a one-month low. ETH has also fallen below 2,000, with a low of 1,943. But what’s really worth watching today isn’t the price—it’s open interest: BTC futures open interest fell 3% in a day, then dropped another 5% in the past four hours; ETH open interest fell 5%; SOL fell 4%. When price and open interest fall together, it’s not new shorts going on the attack—it’s old longs unwinding their own positions.
To sum up the nature of today’s market in one sentence: this isn’t a crash, it’s deleveraging. The distinction matters—during a crash, buyers disappear; in deleveraging, leverage exits on its own. The former takes time to recover from; the latter often gets some breathing room once the leverage has been cleared out.
I. BTC: Longs are reducing leverage, but retail traders haven’t woken up yet
The data tells a clear story.
On price, 68.9K is the lowest point of the past month, and the 70K round-number level has given way. On open interest, it fell 3% in a day, then another 5% over four hours, suggesting leveraged longs are being squeezed out rather than shorts building large positions. On flows, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows for five consecutive trading days, from the 5th to the 11th, totaling about $1.4 billion. The data for the 12th is not yet complete—this has been the most persistent source of outflows in the current downturn.
More noteworthy is the structural mismatch: long accounts still outnumber short accounts by around 2.8 to 1. Prices are making new lows and open interest is declining, yet account positioning remains heavily skewed long. What does that mean? It means leveraged positions are being liquidated, not that retail traders have lost faith. Two whales had BTC long positions worth $60.06 million liquidated this morning, losing $3.23 million in principal. Big players are using leverage to bet on direction and getting crushed by the market, while ordinary accounts are still hanging on, waiting for a rebound. This kind of structure usually does not unwind in a single move, because there is still a group of “longs who refuse to admit defeat” waiting to be flushed out.
Then there’s the blow from MSCI: MicroStrategy is being removed from the index, effective after the close on the 30th. MicroStrategy holds 850,000 BTC at an average cost of about 75.5K, and the market price is now even further below its cost basis. The damage is not the $2.8 billion in passive selling by itself, but the hit to the financing capacity of buyers like “corporate treasuries”: passive buying dries up, the share price trades at a discount, the cost of issuing new shares rises, and purchases slow. Once this chain gets going, recovery takes months; one bullish candle cannot fix it.
Trading strategy:
Until BTC reclaims 70K, maintain a short bias with a small position, and place the stop-loss above 71K. That stop is not arbitrary—71K was a high-volume trading area before the breakdown. A move back above it would suggest today’s drop was just a leveraged flush, and the trend assessment would need to be revisited. If tonight’s PPI pushes BTC below 68.9K, things could get ugly, because there is no support structure below 68.9K from the past month. Conversely, if the price quickly reclaims 70K after the PPI release and does not make a new low, reduce short positions immediately. Don’t get greedy.
II. ETH: 2,000 has broken, and what’s broken is the psychological ledger
ETH is around 1,960, down 4% on the day, with a low of 1,943—a new monthly low as well. Open interest is down 5% for the day, and long accounts outnumber short accounts by around 3.3 to 1.
ETH is in a slightly more awkward position than BTC today: its account positioning is even more heavily skewed long (3.3 to 1 versus 2.8 to 1), suggesting more crowded leveraged longs, yet the price has already broken down. Accounts are still long while the price has broken support—that is the most uncomfortable combination. Spot buyers are not stepping in, and leveraged positions are stubbornly holding on. The number 2,000 matters because it is a psychological ledger for the entire market. Once it breaks, those who had orders resting at 2,000 as a “must-hold level” may collectively change their minds.
Trading strategy:
If ETH cannot reclaim 2,000, stay bearish and participate with a small position, with a stop-loss above 2,000. The key here is not how much you make, but keeping the stop-loss strict—bounces after ETH breaks down are often sharp and fast, and getting caught holding through one can hurt badly. The right-side signal worth acting on is ETH reclaiming 2,000 while open interest starts to rise (price up + open interest up indicates new money coming in). Until then, treat every bounce as a relief rally.
III. Altcoins: Breadth is dead—don’t look for gold in the ruins
First, breadth: only 136 of 531 perpetual contracts are up. Among the 63 coins with relatively high trading volume, only 18 are rising. This matters more than any individual coin’s candlestick chart—it shows there is no sector-wide rally today, just a few coins holding up amid a broad sell-off. With breadth this weak, the odds of picking a winner are naturally lower, so position sizes need to be more conservative than usual.
SOL: Around 79, down 5% on the day, with a low of 78.6 and open interest down 4%—its price action is almost in sync with BTC. DTCC has said tokenized securities will not be connected to Solana until the second half of 2027. The biggest problem with this positive news is that it is too far away: the market may pay a premium for a launch in the coming quarter, but it will not buy today based on a timeline a year and a half out. It is not supporting the price today, and SOL can only follow the broader market. Small short position, stop-loss above 82.
ZEC: Around 931, down 6%, with a low of 922 and open interest down 8%. Note that people were still adding to positions yesterday; today even those buyers are pulling out. The spot ETF had net outflows of $9.88 million yesterday, but cumulative flows remain positive at $182 million—one day of outflows does not change that structure. The problem is that ZEC has consistently failed to reclaim 1,000. The structure is intact, but the price lacks strength, making this a classic “watch, but don’t act” situation. I’ll wait and see rather than rush in.
HYPE: This is one of the few coins with something meaningful to say today. With the broader market getting crushed, it is down just 1%, trading around 71, with a low of 69.5 and open interest down 3%—a significantly smaller decline than BTC’s. Relative strength is information in itself: coins that hold up on a broadly down day often still have money behind them. Binance is listing HYPEUSDC perpetuals on the 16th, which could boost liquidity and attention around the listing. Small long position, stop-loss below 69. This is the only bullish altcoin idea today.
BARD: A classic speculative-coin setup. Around 0.121, up 45% in a day, but exchange open interest jumped 611% in a day—far faster than the price. That is leverage driving the move, not spot buying. It is up around 47% on South Korean exchanges Bithumb and Upbit, suggesting a combination of Korean exchange sentiment and leverage. Lombard has not published any fundamental news that I could verify in the past couple of days. Long accounts are only about 0.6 times the number of short accounts, meaning shorts are paying roughly 6% in funding per day—a very high cost to short. But open interest has already fallen 5% over the past hour. Once leverage starts to unwind, a sharp wick can come very quickly. Chasing at this level could make even one pullback painful. Add it to your watchlist, but don’t trade it.
KGEN: Yesterday I said to watch open interest; today it has dropped 43%, while the price is down 17%, around 0.072. Price and open interest have both plunged, indicating that leverage has already pulled out. Some of the drop has happened, but buying the dip here may not be comfortable—bottoms after a leverage flush usually take time to form; one wick does not mean the bottom is in. There is also another token unlock on December 7, so keep an eye on it beforehand and don’t buy the dip ahead of the unlock.
IV. Why crypto didn’t follow Nvidia’s rally
On the 12th, Jensen Huang stepped down as Nvidia’s CEO. The stock fell as much as 13% at the open, but closed down just 4%. Those who bought that dip made money; crypto not only failed to follow, but also hit a new monthly low.
This divergence is telling. The stock market has fundamental support: once prices fall far enough, investors start calculating valuations, orders, and supply-chain impacts, which is why a 13% drop could recover to a 4% loss. Crypto has no such support right now. It trades on liquidity and leverage, not narratives. The risk aversion triggered by Nvidia’s turmoil was absorbed through valuation in the stock market, while in crypto it showed up directly as “reduce exposure first, ask questions later.” Add five consecutive days of ETF outflows and MicroStrategy’s removal from the index, and crypto’s buying support was already thin. When external shocks hit, the only way to attract buyers is to fall far enough.
So stop approaching today’s market with a “the bad news is priced in” mindset. The premise for bad news being priced in is that buyers are waiting. Buyers are exactly what’s missing right now.
V. Tonight’s PPI: Why it matters more than you think
The 21:30 PPI release is the only hard catalyst tonight.
PPI measures upstream prices, leads CPI, and directly affects the market’s view of the inflation outlook. With ETFs continuing to see outflows and leverage being flushed out, the market is more sensitive to macro data: a hotter reading could revive rate-hike expectations and keep risk assets under pressure, opening up room below 68.9K. A cooler reading could trigger a round of short covering, but note that this would be a corrective bounce only; it would not change the medium-term pressure from ETF outflows and the index removal.
My view: Don’t add to positions or chase trades before the PPI release. In the current setup, both bulls and bears have a case; the only certainty is that volatility will increase. Watching how price reacts to the data is more valuable than trying to guess the data itself.
VI. The big picture: Managing positions tonight
Directionally, keep a bearish bias on BTC and ETH, with small positions and hard stops: stop-loss above 71K for BTC shorts and above 2,000 for ETH shorts. Stay out of altcoins overall, with the sole exception of a small HYPE long, with a stop-loss below 69. Don’t chase BARD, no matter how tempting its leverage-fueled gains look; and don’t rush to buy the dip in KGEN, where leverage has only just unwound.
Three risk-management rules: First, there is a data release tonight, so you must reduce leverage. High leverage has no room to survive in a market prone to sharp wicks. Second, don’t stubbornly hold short positions all the way through a profit—if the price moves against you after the PPI release, cut at least half. Third, ETF flows and contract open interest are the two indicators to watch most closely over the next couple of months. A trend reversal requires ETFs to turn to net inflows and open interest to rise alongside prices. Until then, treat every bounce as a relief rally.
In the short term, 70K and 2,000 are two clear, widely watched dividing lines. In the medium term, the damage to the “corporate treasury” financing chain caused by MicroStrategy’s removal from the index cannot be repaired in a week. This rally is about making money from volatility, not from conviction.
This analysis is based on market data and publicly available information as of November 13, 2026, and does not constitute investment advice. The crypto market carries extremely high leverage risk; please strictly manage position sizes and stop-losses.
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