Max pain is at $76,000, while $BTC is trading just above $68,700—and expiry day hasn’t even arrived, but the options market has already been crushed.
Today at 16:00 Beijing time, around $2.78 billion in weekly BTC and ETH options on Deribit will expire:
1. Around 34,000 BTC options, with a notional value of $2.48 billion, a put/call ratio of 0.52, and max pain at $76,000;
2. Around 148,000 $ETH options, with a notional value of $300 million, a put/call ratio of 1.55, and max pain at $2,200;
3. Deribit real-time data: max pain for this expiry is $75,500, with $2.32 billion in notional value; open interest includes 22,621 calls and 10,732 puts. The largest single position is 8,295 calls at the $81,000 strike.
Both prices have already fallen below max pain: BTC is around $68,772, with an intraday low of $68,307, down 6.56% on the day, and has also lost its 200-day moving average at $73,137. ETH is around $2,007, down 2.1% over 24 hours and 10.11% over the week.
In This Whale’s November 11 T-2 preview, two scenarios were laid out: a recovery above $75,000 would favor the bulls, while a break below $72,350 would favor the bears. We have the answer now—the second scenario played out, with a further drop of around $3,600.
This Whale’s view: max pain isn’t a price target; it’s the settlement price that’s most comfortable for option sellers. The further the current price moves from it, the stronger the forces that have been pressing prices down this week. Expiry itself is neither bullish nor bearish. The real things to watch are whether options hedging pressure eases after 16:00 and whether tonight’s 21:30 PPI release gives prices another shove. On expiry day, first see whether prices can hold after 16:00. If they can’t, don’t rush to talk about a rebound—make sure your position is secure first.
Today at 16:00 Beijing time, around $2.78 billion in weekly BTC and ETH options on Deribit will expire:
1. Around 34,000 BTC options, with a notional value of $2.48 billion, a put/call ratio of 0.52, and max pain at $76,000;
2. Around 148,000 $ETH options, with a notional value of $300 million, a put/call ratio of 1.55, and max pain at $2,200;
3. Deribit real-time data: max pain for this expiry is $75,500, with $2.32 billion in notional value; open interest includes 22,621 calls and 10,732 puts. The largest single position is 8,295 calls at the $81,000 strike.
Both prices have already fallen below max pain: BTC is around $68,772, with an intraday low of $68,307, down 6.56% on the day, and has also lost its 200-day moving average at $73,137. ETH is around $2,007, down 2.1% over 24 hours and 10.11% over the week.
In This Whale’s November 11 T-2 preview, two scenarios were laid out: a recovery above $75,000 would favor the bulls, while a break below $72,350 would favor the bears. We have the answer now—the second scenario played out, with a further drop of around $3,600.
This Whale’s view: max pain isn’t a price target; it’s the settlement price that’s most comfortable for option sellers. The further the current price moves from it, the stronger the forces that have been pressing prices down this week. Expiry itself is neither bullish nor bearish. The real things to watch are whether options hedging pressure eases after 16:00 and whether tonight’s 21:30 PPI release gives prices another shove. On expiry day, first see whether prices can hold after 16:00. If they can’t, don’t rush to talk about a rebound—make sure your position is secure first.
