#AAVE #AAVEUSDT.P Here's the latest AAVE analysis, no fluff.
AAVE now: $111
Down 10.4% today, 15% in 7 days, 28% in 30 days, and 48% in a year.
Market cap: $1.72 billion, ranked 50th.
Volume: $215 million, which means people are selling heavily.
AAVE is down 83% from its 2021 peak of $661.
Why is AAVE down so much despite the good news?
That's the paradox. All the AAVE news this week is good, but the price is down. Why?
1. The whole market is down:
BTC is falling, and Fear & Greed is at 24, which means fear. AAVE follows BTC. When the market is scared, people sell DeFi first.
2. The osETH, LBTC, and rETH issue:
LlamaRisk, Aave's risk management firm, asked the DAO to freeze $538 million worth of collateral: osETH, LBTC, and rETH on V3 Core. There's a risk involved.
On top of that, there's a proposal to freeze $279 million worth of osETH alone, at the request of StakeWise's founder.
That means people are worried there could be a problem with the collateral, like what happened in the Binance hack.
3. The trend broke:
AAVE broke its daily uptrend today after falling below $134.9. This caused trading bots to sell.
But AAVE's fundamentals are the strongest in all of DeFi:
1. Aave V3.8 launched:
The V3.8 update launched today across 15 markets. It protects the protocol from reentrancy attacks, the most dangerous type of attack in DeFi. It passed an audit by Certora.
2. BTC as collateral in Aave V4:
The DAO voted 100% in favor of allowing native BTC to be used as collateral to borrow stablecoins. This is the first time in history. It means BTC funds will flow into Aave.
3. Kraken bought AAVE:
Payward, Kraken's parent company, bought a large amount of AAVE from the market, both for itself and its clients. That means Kraken believes in Aave.
4. Aave bought Avon:
Aave Labs bought the Avon team to build fixed-rate lending, meaning loans with a fixed interest rate. This is very important for institutions.
5. The numbers are incredible:
TVL: $16.4 billion, the largest DeFi protocol in the world
Deposits: more than $30 billion
Total borrowing volume: $1.1 trillion
V4 deposits: $1.5 billion in October alone
Technical analysis:
All timeframes are STRONG SELL. 5 minutes: SELL, 15 minutes: STRONG SELL, 1 hour: STRONG SELL, 4 hours: STRONG SELL, daily: SELL.
RSI: 32–38, which means oversold, close to the bottom.
MACD and ADX: bearish.
Support: $109.7 is the most important support; it's the 200-day moving average. If it breaks, it will go to $103, then $78.
Resistance: $112, then $120.78, then $126.48. It needs to get back above $126 to recover. The major target is $140.9.
Outlook for the next 2–3 days: it will stay between $111 and $121, with only a 22% chance of going up.
My conclusion:
AAVE is the strongest DeFi protocol, but its price is falling because the market is scared and there are concerns about collateral.
That's the difference between AAVE and ALICE: ALICE is falling because the project is weak; AAVE is falling because the market is weak, but the project is very strong.
Standard Chartered expects AAVE to reach $180 by the end of 2026. PrimeXBT expects it to be between $82 and $152.
If you bought AAVE near the top, don't sell at the bottom now, because RSI has become oversold and a rebound is coming. Wait for $120–$126 to exit.
If you want to buy more, this is a good buying zone: $109–$111, stop below $103, and a target of $140–$150.$AAVE
