In a falling market, even a strong rebound can turn out to be a trap. @Kira Alpha draws attention to the $72,000 area: that is where the author is willing to consider buying spot Bitcoin, but only after a confirmed reaction from buyers.

This is an important difference from the usual “buy the dip” strategy. Here, the market must show a reaction first, and only then should you take a position.

What the author proposes

Kira Alpha outlines several possible scenarios:

  • If local support holds, BTC could return to the equilibrium area of the previous trading range.

  • If daily support breaks, the previous low will be the next target.

  • After a liquidity sweep near $72,500, the author allows for a cautious LONG if the price quickly moves back above the level.

  • A deeper area of interest is around $71,900.

For a SHORT, the author considers the $74,000, $74,500, and $74,800 zones, but warns that the price holding above the upper zone would invalidate the countertrend idea.

What supports the analysis

At the time of publication, the author noted a weak weekly structure. However, after a reaction from the $72,000 area, they opened a small long position and took partial profits.

This is an important detail: the author acknowledges that having an open LONG may influence their market assessment. This caveat makes the analysis more transparent.

As of November 12, Bitcoin is hovering around $73,700. Short-term indicators are nearing oversold territory, but this does not change the downward structure. ETFs continue to record outflows, while market demand has yet to show a sustained recovery.

My assessment

Kira Alpha’s idea is interesting precisely because it is conditional. The author does not suggest buying every red candle. They wait for a liquidity sweep, a price recovery, and confirmation from market participants.

But there’s a problem: levels from an intraday analysis quickly become outdated. So they can’t be used as ready-made orders for the next day. Local highs, lows, and price reactions need to be checked again.

Three scenarios

  • Bullish: BTC tests the $72,000–$72,500 area, sweeps liquidity, and quickly moves back above it. Buyers confirm their control, and the price starts to rebuild its local structure.

  • Neutral: the price stays between $72,000 and $74,800. The market forms a range in which trades without confirmation offer little advantage.

  • Bearish: BTC loses $72,000, and an attempt to reclaim it fails. In that case, the next area to watch is around $71,000.

Trading plan

The main idea is not to automatically buy the dip, but to wait for a confirmed recovery after a liquidity sweep.

  • LONG: only after a sweep of the $72,000–$72,500 area, a quick move back above it, and confirmation on a lower timeframe.

  • Stop Loss: below the false-breakout low. The exact level is determined after the recovery candle forms.

  • Targets: first $74,000, then $74,500. With sustained momentum — $74,800.

  • SHORT: if $72,000 breaks and the price fails to reclaim this level, a short entry on a retest from below can be considered.

  • LONG invalidation: price holding below the liquidity-sweep low.

  • Risk: no more than 0.5% of capital for a countertrend trade. If there is no confirmation, stay out of the market.

The trader’s biggest mistake

Seeing the RSI near oversold, opening a LONG, and calling it bottom-fishing. The indicator can remain in a weak zone longer than a trader can hold a position.

Conclusion

Kira Alpha proposes waiting for the market to react instead of predicting a reversal. I think this is the right approach. Given Bitcoin’s current structure, buyers must first show strength rather than simply appear near support for a few minutes.

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#Bitcoin #BTC #CryptoTrading #LiquiditySweep #PriceAction #TechnicalAnalysis #RiskManagement