📉 NEUTRAL | $INIT Down 21.4% in the 24 hours after the Nov 11 security incident, so volatility is higher than usual. Active selling over the past hour and position closures are the main factors, but selling pressure is not yet strong enough to call it sustained selling.
🕰 CONTEXT: Since the news broke (14:59 on Nov 10), the price rose as much as 75% before falling back; it is now 47% below its pre-news level. Since the news, buyers accounted for 52% of volume (49% before the news), with net buying of 2.9 million USDT: the two sides are evenly matched. Total open interest (OI) is down 45% since the news: traders are closing positions and reducing leverage. The last time this coin faced similar bad news (Oct 23), its price was 45% higher a week later. That’s only one instance, so it’s not a pattern. Short sellers are very crowded (funding -0.31%/8h), so the price could rebound sharply.
📰 BAD NEWS, high impact: Initia IBC Exploit, $3.27 million drained through spoofing and L1 temporarily halted (Coin Gabbar, 21:45 on Nov 11).
💰 SPOT (Binance): Active buying over 24 hours was 49.7%, nearly balanced; in the most recent hour it was just 37.5%, giving sellers the short-term advantage.
🐋 WHALES AND THE CROWD: top traders are long 53.4% of positions, and the crowd is 53% long. Both lean long while the price is still falling, making the long side more vulnerable to losses.
💸 FUNDING AND OI: funding is -0.309%/8h, so shorts are paying fees and are crowded. OI fell 13.5% along with the price: positions are being closed, not added to.
💧 LIQUIDITY: the order book within ±2% has only 28,900 USDT, making it very thin, so a few orders could move the price; the largest sell wall is about 653 thousand USDT around 0.1214.
🚨 PUMP-AND-DUMP RISK: high. 24-hour volume is 77.3% of market cap (heavy speculation), and the thin order book makes the price easy to push in either direction.
🎯 $INIT LEVELS TO WATCH: support 0.1152 USDT · resistance 0.1214 USDT
🔎 CONCLUSION: One-hour selling and falling OI tilt the short-term outlook toward shorts; neither side has won in the middle range. Longs need a 4-hour INIT/USDT Binance spot candle to close above 0.1214; shorts need it to close below 0.1152 (candle closes at 03:00 on Nov 13).
Data as of 23:13 on Nov 12 (Vietnam time).
In the 0.1152 to 0.1214 range, do you lean long or short, and why?
Manage your capital before entering a trade: each trade should risk only about one percent of your capital.
Not investment advice. DYOR.
#BinanceSquare #INIT #Initia
🕰 CONTEXT: Since the news broke (14:59 on Nov 10), the price rose as much as 75% before falling back; it is now 47% below its pre-news level. Since the news, buyers accounted for 52% of volume (49% before the news), with net buying of 2.9 million USDT: the two sides are evenly matched. Total open interest (OI) is down 45% since the news: traders are closing positions and reducing leverage. The last time this coin faced similar bad news (Oct 23), its price was 45% higher a week later. That’s only one instance, so it’s not a pattern. Short sellers are very crowded (funding -0.31%/8h), so the price could rebound sharply.
📰 BAD NEWS, high impact: Initia IBC Exploit, $3.27 million drained through spoofing and L1 temporarily halted (Coin Gabbar, 21:45 on Nov 11).
💰 SPOT (Binance): Active buying over 24 hours was 49.7%, nearly balanced; in the most recent hour it was just 37.5%, giving sellers the short-term advantage.
🐋 WHALES AND THE CROWD: top traders are long 53.4% of positions, and the crowd is 53% long. Both lean long while the price is still falling, making the long side more vulnerable to losses.
💸 FUNDING AND OI: funding is -0.309%/8h, so shorts are paying fees and are crowded. OI fell 13.5% along with the price: positions are being closed, not added to.
💧 LIQUIDITY: the order book within ±2% has only 28,900 USDT, making it very thin, so a few orders could move the price; the largest sell wall is about 653 thousand USDT around 0.1214.
🚨 PUMP-AND-DUMP RISK: high. 24-hour volume is 77.3% of market cap (heavy speculation), and the thin order book makes the price easy to push in either direction.
🎯 $INIT LEVELS TO WATCH: support 0.1152 USDT · resistance 0.1214 USDT
🔎 CONCLUSION: One-hour selling and falling OI tilt the short-term outlook toward shorts; neither side has won in the middle range. Longs need a 4-hour INIT/USDT Binance spot candle to close above 0.1214; shorts need it to close below 0.1152 (candle closes at 03:00 on Nov 13).
Data as of 23:13 on Nov 12 (Vietnam time).
In the 0.1152 to 0.1214 range, do you lean long or short, and why?
Manage your capital before entering a trade: each trade should risk only about one percent of your capital.
Not investment advice. DYOR.
#BinanceSquare #INIT #Initia
