Initial U.S. jobless claims jumped to 200K (forecast: 195K), with the previous figure revised to 191K.
The labor market is cooling off a bit after 3 weeks below 200K! 📉
But don't celebrate just yet: October's CPI, just released, came in higher than forecast (hotter than expected). A slight cooling in employment isn't enough to make the Fed change course, but it does help rein in the hawks. According to CME FedWatch, the odds of a massive 50-basis-point Fed hike in December are only around 9–11% (with 90% leaning toward a modest 25-basis-point hike). 🏦
What should traders do right now? Don't FOMO into an "all-in" position based on one-off news! Be patient and wait for a clear trend, scale into trades, and reduce leverage to avoid getting caught in a whipsaw. 🛡️
This is not financial advice.
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