$BTC structure rhymes with early 2020 bull market setup. Back then we swept a major HTF low, then had one final capitulation toward the previous ATH before ripping.
Now we've swept the HTF low again, but the capitulation move hasn't shown up yet.
Two scenarios:
1) Sharp selloff toward $69K (previous ATH). Worst case. Strategy's MSCI removal could be the catalyst, but that news feels mostly priced in already.
2) Buyers frontrun the retest and step in before $69K. This is my base case.
Either way, even if we sweep lows one more time, time is running out for bears. Setup favors the bulls once this final flush plays out.
Now we've swept the HTF low again, but the capitulation move hasn't shown up yet.
Two scenarios:
1) Sharp selloff toward $69K (previous ATH). Worst case. Strategy's MSCI removal could be the catalyst, but that news feels mostly priced in already.
2) Buyers frontrun the retest and step in before $69K. This is my base case.
Either way, even if we sweep lows one more time, time is running out for bears. Setup favors the bulls once this final flush plays out.
