Markets price in a 100% chance: Fed CERTAIN to raise interest rates in December
According to CME FedWatch, markets are now pricing in a 100% chance that the Fed will raise interest rates at its December meeting — with no rate-hold scenario remaining on the table.
Specifically, there’s a 90.8% chance of a 0.25 percentage-point hike (bringing the target rate to 400–425 basis points) and a 9.2% chance of a larger 0.5 percentage-point hike (to 425–450 basis points). Just one month ago, the odds of a 0.5 percentage-point hike were 14.3%, while the chance of rates remaining unchanged was still 15.9%.
This shift is a direct result of October’s hotter-than-expected CPI (+0.4% headline, +0.3% core): the core figure hit the 0.3% threshold that Fed Governor Christopher Waller had cited as a possible trigger for a 0.5 percentage-point hike in December. The odds of a rate hike rose from 84% before the CPI report to 90%, and have now settled at 100%.
In the market, $BTC is currently around 73,483 USDT, down 0.81% over 24 hours, and still holding above the 73,500 support zone after touching a daily low of 73,260.
The question is no longer “Will the Fed raise rates?” but “Will it hike by 0.25 or 0.5 percentage points?” Which hike do you think would cause greater market volatility in December?
According to CME FedWatch, markets are now pricing in a 100% chance that the Fed will raise interest rates at its December meeting — with no rate-hold scenario remaining on the table.
Specifically, there’s a 90.8% chance of a 0.25 percentage-point hike (bringing the target rate to 400–425 basis points) and a 9.2% chance of a larger 0.5 percentage-point hike (to 425–450 basis points). Just one month ago, the odds of a 0.5 percentage-point hike were 14.3%, while the chance of rates remaining unchanged was still 15.9%.
This shift is a direct result of October’s hotter-than-expected CPI (+0.4% headline, +0.3% core): the core figure hit the 0.3% threshold that Fed Governor Christopher Waller had cited as a possible trigger for a 0.5 percentage-point hike in December. The odds of a rate hike rose from 84% before the CPI report to 90%, and have now settled at 100%.
In the market, $BTC is currently around 73,483 USDT, down 0.81% over 24 hours, and still holding above the 73,500 support zone after touching a daily low of 73,260.
The question is no longer “Will the Fed raise rates?” but “Will it hike by 0.25 or 0.5 percentage points?” Which hike do you think would cause greater market volatility in December?
