Nebius doesn't report earnings until tonight, but it was already up 15.4% yesterday—and the catalyst wasn't its own results, but those of its neighbor CoreWeave.
$NBIS closed Wednesday at $154.69, up from $134 at the previous close, after hitting an intraday high of $160.21. CoreWeave led the way: Q3 revenue came in at $3.66 billion, up 168% year over year, and the company raised its full-year guidance to $13 billion–$13.3 billion. That lifted the entire AI compute-rental sector, while CoreWeave itself gained 16%.
Nebius reports Q3 results before the U.S. market opens tonight, with its earnings call at 9:00 p.m. Beijing time. The consensus is for revenue of about $907 million and a loss of roughly $0.69–$0.72 per share. Second-quarter revenue was $582.3 million, so that would mean quarter-over-quarter growth of about 56%. Full-year guidance stands at $3 billion–$3.4 billion, and the company plans to spend $20 billion–$25 billion on capital expenditures this year. In October, it secured a $3.5 billion financing facility from Citi. There are reasons for caution, too: on November 4, Citi cut its price target from $324 to $265, and news last week that Microsoft was tightening oversight of data-center projects run by compute-rental providers briefly weighed on the stock.
Our take: yesterday's surge has already raised expectations. Tonight's test isn't just whether revenue tops $900 million, but whether new capacity can come online on schedule, whether Microsoft's tighter oversight affects Nebius's contracts, and whether the company raises its full-year guidance. If the results merely meet expectations, it's no surprise if some of the gains are given back in the short term. What really matters is whether Q4 can deliver on the $3 billion floor of its guidance—that's what will determine whether this rally holds.
$NBIS closed Wednesday at $154.69, up from $134 at the previous close, after hitting an intraday high of $160.21. CoreWeave led the way: Q3 revenue came in at $3.66 billion, up 168% year over year, and the company raised its full-year guidance to $13 billion–$13.3 billion. That lifted the entire AI compute-rental sector, while CoreWeave itself gained 16%.
Nebius reports Q3 results before the U.S. market opens tonight, with its earnings call at 9:00 p.m. Beijing time. The consensus is for revenue of about $907 million and a loss of roughly $0.69–$0.72 per share. Second-quarter revenue was $582.3 million, so that would mean quarter-over-quarter growth of about 56%. Full-year guidance stands at $3 billion–$3.4 billion, and the company plans to spend $20 billion–$25 billion on capital expenditures this year. In October, it secured a $3.5 billion financing facility from Citi. There are reasons for caution, too: on November 4, Citi cut its price target from $324 to $265, and news last week that Microsoft was tightening oversight of data-center projects run by compute-rental providers briefly weighed on the stock.
Our take: yesterday's surge has already raised expectations. Tonight's test isn't just whether revenue tops $900 million, but whether new capacity can come online on schedule, whether Microsoft's tighter oversight affects Nebius's contracts, and whether the company raises its full-year guidance. If the results merely meet expectations, it's no surprise if some of the gains are given back in the short term. What really matters is whether Q4 can deliver on the $3 billion floor of its guidance—that's what will determine whether this rally holds.
