$AGT is up 204.1% in the past 24 hours. Chase it or short it? Let’s look at the historical data first.
I analyzed daily candles for Binance USDT perpetual contracts since 2022 (920 contracts, including traditional finance contracts and 164 delisted ones). There have been 793 instances of a single-day gain of at least 50%. Measured from the next day’s open:
- After 1 day: median return −7.3%; 35% were up
- After 3 days: median return −14.3%; 32% were up
- After 7 days: median return −21.4%; 27% were up
- Outcomes varied widely at both extremes: after 7 days, the worst 10% were down more than 54%, while the best 10% were up more than 44%
In other words, chasing is likely to lose money: about 73% of the time, the price was lower than your entry a week later. But shorting the reversal can also be rough: 14% of the time, the price rose more than 30% again within 7 days—a move that highly leveraged short positions may not survive.
Now let’s look at the cost of holding: $AGT currently has a funding rate of 0.0755% every 4 hours (longs pay shorts). At this rate, chasing a long position now would cost about 0.45% in funding alone over a day.
A few notes: many coins often surge or plunge together on the same day, so these events are not independent; the statistics exclude trading fees and funding fees; returns are calculated from daily close to daily close, so they differ slightly from the rolling 24-hour percentage change; past performance does not predict future results.
When you come across a coin surging like this, what do you usually do: stay away, chase with a small position, or wait for a pullback?
Full statistics and methodology: https://jmcool007.github.io/wisekit/research/pump-dump/
#合约交易 #Altcoins
This is not investment advice.
I analyzed daily candles for Binance USDT perpetual contracts since 2022 (920 contracts, including traditional finance contracts and 164 delisted ones). There have been 793 instances of a single-day gain of at least 50%. Measured from the next day’s open:
- After 1 day: median return −7.3%; 35% were up
- After 3 days: median return −14.3%; 32% were up
- After 7 days: median return −21.4%; 27% were up
- Outcomes varied widely at both extremes: after 7 days, the worst 10% were down more than 54%, while the best 10% were up more than 44%
In other words, chasing is likely to lose money: about 73% of the time, the price was lower than your entry a week later. But shorting the reversal can also be rough: 14% of the time, the price rose more than 30% again within 7 days—a move that highly leveraged short positions may not survive.
Now let’s look at the cost of holding: $AGT currently has a funding rate of 0.0755% every 4 hours (longs pay shorts). At this rate, chasing a long position now would cost about 0.45% in funding alone over a day.
A few notes: many coins often surge or plunge together on the same day, so these events are not independent; the statistics exclude trading fees and funding fees; returns are calculated from daily close to daily close, so they differ slightly from the rolling 24-hour percentage change; past performance does not predict future results.
When you come across a coin surging like this, what do you usually do: stay away, chase with a small position, or wait for a pullback?
Full statistics and methodology: https://jmcool007.github.io/wisekit/research/pump-dump/
#合约交易 #Altcoins
This is not investment advice.
