📊 One number missing, one more rate hike
October CPI was missing a number—the one everyone cites most.
The report BLS released at 08:30 on November 10 showed headline prices up 0.4% month over month and core prices up 0.3%. Both were 0.1 percentage point above Dow Jones expectations (the market forecast 0.3% and 0.2%). Headline inflation was still 0.6% in September.
Most entries in the year-over-year column are “—”. The report makes it clear: a funding lapse in October 2025 meant BLS couldn’t collect data for that month, so it couldn’t publish the October 2025 index or calculate the 12-month change for October 2026. The figures it could calculate were still released. Used cars were down 3.3% year over year; new cars were up 0.7%.
The anchor is gone; all that’s left is month-over-month data. Core prices have risen 0.3% for three consecutive months (August, September, and October), an annualized rate of 3.66%. Headline prices rose 0.4%, 0.6%, and 0.4% over those three months, an annualized rate of 5.75%.
He had already drawn the line. A few hours before the data came out, Waller said in a speech in London that even if October was soft, he would still lean toward a December hike. If inflation came in hotter than expected, “the December meeting should consider 50 basis points; raising rates by only 25 basis points would put our credibility at risk.” A few hours later, core inflation came in at 0.3%, right on the line he had drawn. The Fed raised rates by 25 basis points in September and paused in October, when Cook and Hammack dissented and called for a hike. Logan spoke later that day, saying two more 25-basis-point hikes would be needed before stopping to assess the effects.
The market has bought it. The odds of a 25-basis-point hike in December are 85.5%, a hike of 50 basis points or more 9.75%, and no change 3.7% (live Polymarket scrape on November 12; $263 million in cumulative trading volume). The 10-year Treasury yield rose from 4.837% on November 5 to 4.998% on November 11. The dollar index was 101.65 on November 9 and is 103.01 today. Gold was at 4,114.5 on November 9 and is 3,989.2 today, down 3% in three days.
Bitcoin moved just 2.1%. On CPI release day, it fell from $75,368 to $73,796, then traded sideways between $73,209 and $74,811. It’s still 41.6% below its October 6, 2025 high of $126,199.
The timing is the real issue. The meeting is on December 8–9, and November CPI won’t be released until 08:30 on December 10. Rates get set before the data comes in. This time, even the base period is missing.
A single shutdown erased the October 2025 price sample, leaving the year-end decision to be inferred from three months of month-over-month data. There’s no way to fill that gap in the statistical record. Year-over-year calculations can resume once the base period rolls over next month.
BTC $73,700–$73,841, flat over 24 hours. ETH $2,052–$2,056, down 0.4%.
#中本聪国际社区Baoluo币商资本 #宏观经济 #U.S.CPI
October CPI was missing a number—the one everyone cites most.
The report BLS released at 08:30 on November 10 showed headline prices up 0.4% month over month and core prices up 0.3%. Both were 0.1 percentage point above Dow Jones expectations (the market forecast 0.3% and 0.2%). Headline inflation was still 0.6% in September.
Most entries in the year-over-year column are “—”. The report makes it clear: a funding lapse in October 2025 meant BLS couldn’t collect data for that month, so it couldn’t publish the October 2025 index or calculate the 12-month change for October 2026. The figures it could calculate were still released. Used cars were down 3.3% year over year; new cars were up 0.7%.
The anchor is gone; all that’s left is month-over-month data. Core prices have risen 0.3% for three consecutive months (August, September, and October), an annualized rate of 3.66%. Headline prices rose 0.4%, 0.6%, and 0.4% over those three months, an annualized rate of 5.75%.
He had already drawn the line. A few hours before the data came out, Waller said in a speech in London that even if October was soft, he would still lean toward a December hike. If inflation came in hotter than expected, “the December meeting should consider 50 basis points; raising rates by only 25 basis points would put our credibility at risk.” A few hours later, core inflation came in at 0.3%, right on the line he had drawn. The Fed raised rates by 25 basis points in September and paused in October, when Cook and Hammack dissented and called for a hike. Logan spoke later that day, saying two more 25-basis-point hikes would be needed before stopping to assess the effects.
The market has bought it. The odds of a 25-basis-point hike in December are 85.5%, a hike of 50 basis points or more 9.75%, and no change 3.7% (live Polymarket scrape on November 12; $263 million in cumulative trading volume). The 10-year Treasury yield rose from 4.837% on November 5 to 4.998% on November 11. The dollar index was 101.65 on November 9 and is 103.01 today. Gold was at 4,114.5 on November 9 and is 3,989.2 today, down 3% in three days.
Bitcoin moved just 2.1%. On CPI release day, it fell from $75,368 to $73,796, then traded sideways between $73,209 and $74,811. It’s still 41.6% below its October 6, 2025 high of $126,199.
The timing is the real issue. The meeting is on December 8–9, and November CPI won’t be released until 08:30 on December 10. Rates get set before the data comes in. This time, even the base period is missing.
A single shutdown erased the October 2025 price sample, leaving the year-end decision to be inferred from three months of month-over-month data. There’s no way to fill that gap in the statistical record. Year-over-year calculations can resume once the base period rolls over next month.
BTC $73,700–$73,841, flat over 24 hours. ETH $2,052–$2,056, down 0.4%.
#中本聪国际社区Baoluo币商资本 #宏观经济 #U.S.CPI
