U.S. stocks did bounce yesterday. The Nasdaq rose about 1.6%, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index gained roughly 5.7%, and after CoreWeave reported third-quarter revenue more than double year over year and raised its full-year outlook, its shares jumped nearly a quarter in a day. Some people thought risk appetite was back.
Crypto didn’t follow. Bitcoin touched around 74,800 during the day, but has since slipped back to around 73,800, barely moving over 24 hours. Ethereum is hovering around 2,050. The cost basis for short-term holders is about 75,600, and the price is still below that level, leaving most buyers from this recent wave underwater.
More troubling, money is flowing out. In its report yesterday, Glassnode said that in the 30 days through November 9, the total stablecoin supply fell by $14.2 billion—its biggest contraction since June 2022—dropping below $280 billion to around its September 2024 level. USDT and USDC together lost nearly $11 billion in a month. According to CryptoQuant, USDT’s market cap fell by $6.6 billion in the 60 days through November 7, a steeper drop than during the FTX collapse.
A decline in stablecoins isn’t just an ugly number on the books; it means people are converting U into dollars and taking the money out. There’s less buying power available in the market. A return to growth in supply would be the first sign of new money coming in, but we haven’t seen that yet.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs are still bleeding, too. According to SoSoValue, they saw net outflows of about $95 million on November 10, U.S. time, marking a fourth consecutive day of outflows. IBIT alone saw about $78.24 million leave, while Fidelity’s FBTC had outflows of roughly $36.79 million. The four-day total was about $1.14 billion. Coinbase is still trading at a discount to Binance, and buying demand in the U.S. can hardly be said to have returned.
Some people say this bounce back to 74,000 was driven by short covering. But ETFs are still seeing outflows, stablecoin supply is still shrinking, and the price slid back after reaching around 74,800. This looks more like a squeeze in positions than genuine buying.
Glassnode marked around 73,000 as key support, with the 72,700 area—where prices plunged a couple of days ago—next below that. If this level doesn’t hold, short-term holders will remain underwater, and coins transferred to exchanges at a loss will keep adding to the supply there. Selling pressure won’t just disappear. Before new money comes in, watch whether stablecoin supply keeps falling and whether ETFs see more outflows tomorrow. Initial jobless claims are due tonight, followed by October PPI tomorrow. CPI has already fired a shot, and liquidity is still draining.
#比特币 #Stablecoins
Crypto didn’t follow. Bitcoin touched around 74,800 during the day, but has since slipped back to around 73,800, barely moving over 24 hours. Ethereum is hovering around 2,050. The cost basis for short-term holders is about 75,600, and the price is still below that level, leaving most buyers from this recent wave underwater.
More troubling, money is flowing out. In its report yesterday, Glassnode said that in the 30 days through November 9, the total stablecoin supply fell by $14.2 billion—its biggest contraction since June 2022—dropping below $280 billion to around its September 2024 level. USDT and USDC together lost nearly $11 billion in a month. According to CryptoQuant, USDT’s market cap fell by $6.6 billion in the 60 days through November 7, a steeper drop than during the FTX collapse.
A decline in stablecoins isn’t just an ugly number on the books; it means people are converting U into dollars and taking the money out. There’s less buying power available in the market. A return to growth in supply would be the first sign of new money coming in, but we haven’t seen that yet.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs are still bleeding, too. According to SoSoValue, they saw net outflows of about $95 million on November 10, U.S. time, marking a fourth consecutive day of outflows. IBIT alone saw about $78.24 million leave, while Fidelity’s FBTC had outflows of roughly $36.79 million. The four-day total was about $1.14 billion. Coinbase is still trading at a discount to Binance, and buying demand in the U.S. can hardly be said to have returned.
Some people say this bounce back to 74,000 was driven by short covering. But ETFs are still seeing outflows, stablecoin supply is still shrinking, and the price slid back after reaching around 74,800. This looks more like a squeeze in positions than genuine buying.
Glassnode marked around 73,000 as key support, with the 72,700 area—where prices plunged a couple of days ago—next below that. If this level doesn’t hold, short-term holders will remain underwater, and coins transferred to exchanges at a loss will keep adding to the supply there. Selling pressure won’t just disappear. Before new money comes in, watch whether stablecoin supply keeps falling and whether ETFs see more outflows tomorrow. Initial jobless claims are due tonight, followed by October PPI tomorrow. CPI has already fired a shot, and liquidity is still draining.
#比特币 #Stablecoins
