$AGT $R2 $42 A massive overnight rebound—the Fed may be the one feeling most uncomfortable.
On November 12, the S&P 500 rose 1.31% and the Nasdaq gained 1.60%. The dollar remained strong, but gold failed to hold its rebound. Don’t just focus on the stock market’s rally: when stocks recover, households worry less about their wealth shrinking, and spending they might otherwise have postponed can resume. The market had been helping the Fed curb demand; this rebound eases that pressure.
Bowman said that falling stock prices, rising interest rates, and a strong dollar would tighten financial conditions somewhat, and that a sharp decline could weigh on consumer spending. Paulson warned that real consumer spending growth this year has outpaced real income growth, partly because of the stock market, and may not last. Logan took a tougher line, arguing that financial conditions are still supporting the economy and advocating at least two more 25-basis-point hikes, with the pace potentially quickening this winter.
So, the rebound may weaken the case for caution and a “pause,” but it isn’t enough on its own to determine whether rates should rise by 50 basis points. The same goes for gold: a smaller hike at one meeting doesn’t mean policy is easing, and high rates could persist for longer. What matters next is the resilience of demand and underlying inflation—not whether markets rise or fall on any given day.#美股 #美联储 #黄金
On November 12, the S&P 500 rose 1.31% and the Nasdaq gained 1.60%. The dollar remained strong, but gold failed to hold its rebound. Don’t just focus on the stock market’s rally: when stocks recover, households worry less about their wealth shrinking, and spending they might otherwise have postponed can resume. The market had been helping the Fed curb demand; this rebound eases that pressure.
Bowman said that falling stock prices, rising interest rates, and a strong dollar would tighten financial conditions somewhat, and that a sharp decline could weigh on consumer spending. Paulson warned that real consumer spending growth this year has outpaced real income growth, partly because of the stock market, and may not last. Logan took a tougher line, arguing that financial conditions are still supporting the economy and advocating at least two more 25-basis-point hikes, with the pace potentially quickening this winter.
So, the rebound may weaken the case for caution and a “pause,” but it isn’t enough on its own to determine whether rates should rise by 50 basis points. The same goes for gold: a smaller hike at one meeting doesn’t mean policy is easing, and high rates could persist for longer. What matters next is the resilience of demand and underlying inflation—not whether markets rise or fall on any given day.#美股 #美联储 #黄金
