Consumer job anxiety just hit a 5-year high.
45.3% of Americans now expect unemployment to be higher a year from now—the worst reading since April 2020. That's a massive +11.3 percentage point jump since January.
What's striking: it's not just one group panicking.
• Under-40s are at 48.9% pessimism (2nd highest ever)
• High earners ($100k+) hit 51.5% (also 2nd highest)
When both young workers and wealthy households start worrying about job security at the same time, it's not noise—it's a signal.
The only time this metric was worse? March/April 2020, when the economy literally shut down.
This matters because consumer confidence drives spending, and spending drives 70% of GDP. If people think layoffs are coming, they pull back—even if their own job is secure today.
Watch how this plays into Fed policy, consumer discretionary stocks, and credit card data over the next few months.
45.3% of Americans now expect unemployment to be higher a year from now—the worst reading since April 2020. That's a massive +11.3 percentage point jump since January.
What's striking: it's not just one group panicking.
• Under-40s are at 48.9% pessimism (2nd highest ever)
• High earners ($100k+) hit 51.5% (also 2nd highest)
When both young workers and wealthy households start worrying about job security at the same time, it's not noise—it's a signal.
The only time this metric was worse? March/April 2020, when the economy literally shut down.
This matters because consumer confidence drives spending, and spending drives 70% of GDP. If people think layoffs are coming, they pull back—even if their own job is secure today.
Watch how this plays into Fed policy, consumer discretionary stocks, and credit card data over the next few months.
