Yesterday morning, it was still bottoming out around 73000 and hadn't followed the U.S. stock market's rebound. A few hours later, $BTC had climbed back on its own.
BTC/USDT on Binance was around $74,467 in the evening, rising from $73,110 to $74,780 during the day, up about 1.66% on the day. That's a rebound of about 2.4% from Tuesday's CPI-day low of $72,727.
The key is where it stands: the 200-day moving average is around $73,200. Yesterday, it was still trading below that level; today, it's back above it. The 365-day moving average, around $76,400, is still overhead, with $75,000 the next hurdle.
But don't rush to call it a reversal: spot ETFs still saw $95 million in net outflows on Tuesday, marking four straight days of outflows. And bearish bets are outweighing bullish ones in the Deribit options market: of the 10 most active contracts expiring between November 12 and 27, eight were puts with strike prices between $69,000 and $74,000. Their trading volume was 1.5 times that of calls.
This whale's view: reclaiming the 200-day moving average is a sign that the bleeding has stopped, not a reversal. It needs to hold above $73,200, with volume backing it up, before there's a strong case for another push toward $75,000. If it slips back below, we'll have to revisit Wintermute's warning: “A daily close below $73,000 points to $68,000.” Friday evening's PPI is the next key signal; until then, patience is worth more than courage.
BTC/USDT on Binance was around $74,467 in the evening, rising from $73,110 to $74,780 during the day, up about 1.66% on the day. That's a rebound of about 2.4% from Tuesday's CPI-day low of $72,727.
The key is where it stands: the 200-day moving average is around $73,200. Yesterday, it was still trading below that level; today, it's back above it. The 365-day moving average, around $76,400, is still overhead, with $75,000 the next hurdle.
But don't rush to call it a reversal: spot ETFs still saw $95 million in net outflows on Tuesday, marking four straight days of outflows. And bearish bets are outweighing bullish ones in the Deribit options market: of the 10 most active contracts expiring between November 12 and 27, eight were puts with strike prices between $69,000 and $74,000. Their trading volume was 1.5 times that of calls.
This whale's view: reclaiming the 200-day moving average is a sign that the bleeding has stopped, not a reversal. It needs to hold above $73,200, with volume backing it up, before there's a strong case for another push toward $75,000. If it slips back below, we'll have to revisit Wintermute's warning: “A daily close below $73,000 points to $68,000.” Friday evening's PPI is the next key signal; until then, patience is worth more than courage.
