$SOL Daily up, H4 down… I’m sitting out and waiting for it to pick a side
SMC 11/11, $SOL at 83.94 USDT. I’m staying out today and waiting for confirmation.
D1 (daily timeframe) is still bullish, but the short-term move is going the other way. H4 (4-hour timeframe) is bearish. The two timeframes are diverging, so I’m waiting for price to choose a direction.
Compared with BTC over 90 days: correlation 0.85, beta 1.2. SOL is heavily dependent on BTC.
Why am I not leaning bullish yet? The most recent H4 high was 123.77, and price hasn’t broken above it (still +47.5% away). Price has also broken below the most recent H4 low at 116.25. Momentum is weak: the D1 MACD is red, with the bars getting deeper; ADX is 36, indicating a clear trend.
Levels I’m watching:
Support at 81.25, the 20-day low.
Resistance at 86.02–88.04, a supply zone and H4 Order Block.
If price rises: holding above 81.25 and breaking above 88.04 would confirm upward momentum. The next target is 98.36.
If price falls: breaking below 81.25 and failing to reclaim this level could weaken the trend. The next target is 75.69.
Elliott Wave, for reference only: H4 is retracing in wave 4 of a downward move. Wave 5 could reach around 78.12 (-6.9%) if wave 4 does not overlap with wave 1’s territory.
When would this view be invalidated? An H4 candle closing above 88.04 or below 81.25 would mean the market has chosen a direction, and I’d need to reassess.
Risks: the average daily range is around 5.4% (D1 ATR), and price could sweep through these levels before choosing a direction. An Order Block is just an area to watch and may not hold. Macroeconomic news could trigger sharp moves and slippage.
Price when written: 83.94 USDT (21:34 11/11/2026, UTC+7). Markets change quickly; always use a stop-loss.
Just my personal view, not investment advice.
Will SOL break below 81.25 first, or above 88.04?
#SOL #Solana #SMC #Layer1 #AxionNews
SMC 11/11, $SOL at 83.94 USDT. I’m staying out today and waiting for confirmation.
D1 (daily timeframe) is still bullish, but the short-term move is going the other way. H4 (4-hour timeframe) is bearish. The two timeframes are diverging, so I’m waiting for price to choose a direction.
Compared with BTC over 90 days: correlation 0.85, beta 1.2. SOL is heavily dependent on BTC.
Why am I not leaning bullish yet? The most recent H4 high was 123.77, and price hasn’t broken above it (still +47.5% away). Price has also broken below the most recent H4 low at 116.25. Momentum is weak: the D1 MACD is red, with the bars getting deeper; ADX is 36, indicating a clear trend.
Levels I’m watching:
Support at 81.25, the 20-day low.
Resistance at 86.02–88.04, a supply zone and H4 Order Block.
If price rises: holding above 81.25 and breaking above 88.04 would confirm upward momentum. The next target is 98.36.
If price falls: breaking below 81.25 and failing to reclaim this level could weaken the trend. The next target is 75.69.
Elliott Wave, for reference only: H4 is retracing in wave 4 of a downward move. Wave 5 could reach around 78.12 (-6.9%) if wave 4 does not overlap with wave 1’s territory.
When would this view be invalidated? An H4 candle closing above 88.04 or below 81.25 would mean the market has chosen a direction, and I’d need to reassess.
Risks: the average daily range is around 5.4% (D1 ATR), and price could sweep through these levels before choosing a direction. An Order Block is just an area to watch and may not hold. Macroeconomic news could trigger sharp moves and slippage.
Price when written: 83.94 USDT (21:34 11/11/2026, UTC+7). Markets change quickly; always use a stop-loss.
Just my personal view, not investment advice.
Will SOL break below 81.25 first, or above 88.04?
#SOL #Solana #SMC #Layer1 #AxionNews
