Guys, there’s something going on with the funding rate on $BTW . The 24h cumulative funding rate is -0.2374%—negative. Shorts are paying longs protection money, about 0.2% a day. That’s no small amount.
But I’m not chasing it. Current price: $1.0839, up 11.25%, ranked No. 3 on the gainers list. I’m not stepping on the gas here.
First, volume. The latest daily candle had $22.64 million in trading volume; the latest 4h candle had $1.4 million. Over the last 3 4h candles, it’s down 2.52%, with 6.11% volatility; over the last 3 daily candles, it’s up 8.35%, with 21.6% volatility. This was a rally on rising volume, not a flimsy low-volume pump—but it pulled back right after the run, which means there’s selling overhead.
Moving averages confirm it: 4h EMA5 = 1.1018, EMA25 = 1.1048. At 1.08, the price has already fallen below both, and it’s also lost EMA60 = 1.0876. Daily EMA5 = 1.1059, EMA25 = 1.4536: the moving averages are bearishly aligned. But the daily range is down 48.15%—from 2.75 to 0.87, then back to 1.08. This is a bounce from a deep hole. 4h RSI: 7 = 45.9, 14 = 47.7; daily RSI: 42.5/41.4. Neutral to weak, not overbought, and not oversold either.
The long-short positioning is interesting: the account long/short ratio is 0.808, and the large-holder position ratio is 0.7229. Both retail traders and large holders are leaning short. Funding is negative, so shorts are paying. OI is 78M, market cap is 3,149M, and the ratio is around 2.5%. The positioning isn’t especially intense, but negative funding combined with crowded shorts creates the conditions for a short squeeze.
The broader market is down: BTC -0.47%, ALL -1.81%. $BTW is up 11.25% against the trend—a move of its own. The contract has been listed for 159 days, less than a year, so volatility can be amplified. That’s something to keep in mind.
My bet is that the first ones to fold will be the longs chasing the rally. They’re buying above 1.08 now, with a high cost basis, and will panic if it pulls back. But the shorts are the ones really being put over a barrel: they’re paying negative funding every day, and the longer the price refuses to fall, the more it hurts.
My plan: I’ll buy on a pullback into the 1.02–1.04 area; if it breaks below 0.95, I’m out. First target is 1.20, then the previous high at 1.35. Chase at the current price? Downside of 0.13, upside of 0.27—not a good enough risk/reward for me, so I’m passing. Buy the pullback: downside of 0.08, upside of 0.27. That’s a trade I’ll take.
Will 1.02 hold, or will 0.95 break first? I’m betting on the former. Feel free to prove me wrong 😅
Position size determines your mindset. Don’t get carried away.
$BTW #技术分析 #UncleTwelve
But I’m not chasing it. Current price: $1.0839, up 11.25%, ranked No. 3 on the gainers list. I’m not stepping on the gas here.
First, volume. The latest daily candle had $22.64 million in trading volume; the latest 4h candle had $1.4 million. Over the last 3 4h candles, it’s down 2.52%, with 6.11% volatility; over the last 3 daily candles, it’s up 8.35%, with 21.6% volatility. This was a rally on rising volume, not a flimsy low-volume pump—but it pulled back right after the run, which means there’s selling overhead.
Moving averages confirm it: 4h EMA5 = 1.1018, EMA25 = 1.1048. At 1.08, the price has already fallen below both, and it’s also lost EMA60 = 1.0876. Daily EMA5 = 1.1059, EMA25 = 1.4536: the moving averages are bearishly aligned. But the daily range is down 48.15%—from 2.75 to 0.87, then back to 1.08. This is a bounce from a deep hole. 4h RSI: 7 = 45.9, 14 = 47.7; daily RSI: 42.5/41.4. Neutral to weak, not overbought, and not oversold either.
The long-short positioning is interesting: the account long/short ratio is 0.808, and the large-holder position ratio is 0.7229. Both retail traders and large holders are leaning short. Funding is negative, so shorts are paying. OI is 78M, market cap is 3,149M, and the ratio is around 2.5%. The positioning isn’t especially intense, but negative funding combined with crowded shorts creates the conditions for a short squeeze.
The broader market is down: BTC -0.47%, ALL -1.81%. $BTW is up 11.25% against the trend—a move of its own. The contract has been listed for 159 days, less than a year, so volatility can be amplified. That’s something to keep in mind.
My bet is that the first ones to fold will be the longs chasing the rally. They’re buying above 1.08 now, with a high cost basis, and will panic if it pulls back. But the shorts are the ones really being put over a barrel: they’re paying negative funding every day, and the longer the price refuses to fall, the more it hurts.
My plan: I’ll buy on a pullback into the 1.02–1.04 area; if it breaks below 0.95, I’m out. First target is 1.20, then the previous high at 1.35. Chase at the current price? Downside of 0.13, upside of 0.27—not a good enough risk/reward for me, so I’m passing. Buy the pullback: downside of 0.08, upside of 0.27. That’s a trade I’ll take.
Will 1.02 hold, or will 0.95 break first? I’m betting on the former. Feel free to prove me wrong 😅
Position size determines your mindset. Don’t get carried away.
$BTW #技术分析 #UncleTwelve
