#anthropic拒绝延期ipo，本周路演估值几何？
Anthropic hasn’t postponed. The roadshow is launching as scheduled on November 10, with 825 million shares being offered at a price range of $70 to $78. At the top of the range, that implies a fully diluted valuation of $1.405 trillion. Pricing is set for November 18, with a Nasdaq listing on the 19th.
Just last week, some investors were saying that a $1.5 trillion valuation was a stretch. But the order book is already covered within the price range. The market worried it wouldn’t be able to launch the offering, yet it started the roadshow on time.
At a valuation of $1.4 trillion, based on annualized revenue of $81 billion at the end of October, the price-to-sales ratio is about 17x. The May funding round valued the company at $965 billion, when annualized revenue was about $45 billion and the price-to-sales ratio was over 20x. The valuation has risen by more than 40%, while the multiple has actually fallen. A 17x price-to-sales ratio isn’t cheap, but it’s cheaper than in the May round.
That’s what gives it the confidence to stick to the original plan. Revenue is growing faster than the valuation, and the IPO can beat OpenAI to market, securing pricing power as the first major US AI stock to go public.
Going public just means getting the money; the harder part is balancing the books afterward. The prospectus lists $895.4 billion in long-term compute commitments. This IPO can raise up to $64.3 billion, and adding $26 billion in strategic placements brings the total to $90.4 billion—only a tenth of those compute commitments. The $1.4 trillion valuation is a bet that the company can keep growing; its profits have yet to materialize.
Q3 revenue was $17 billion, with an adjusted operating margin of 15%, while the GAAP margin was still negative 3%. If the company can’t maintain that margin in its first earnings report after listing, a 17x price-to-sales ratio will look very expensive.
Anthropic hasn’t postponed. The roadshow is launching as scheduled on November 10, with 825 million shares being offered at a price range of $70 to $78. At the top of the range, that implies a fully diluted valuation of $1.405 trillion. Pricing is set for November 18, with a Nasdaq listing on the 19th.
Just last week, some investors were saying that a $1.5 trillion valuation was a stretch. But the order book is already covered within the price range. The market worried it wouldn’t be able to launch the offering, yet it started the roadshow on time.
At a valuation of $1.4 trillion, based on annualized revenue of $81 billion at the end of October, the price-to-sales ratio is about 17x. The May funding round valued the company at $965 billion, when annualized revenue was about $45 billion and the price-to-sales ratio was over 20x. The valuation has risen by more than 40%, while the multiple has actually fallen. A 17x price-to-sales ratio isn’t cheap, but it’s cheaper than in the May round.
That’s what gives it the confidence to stick to the original plan. Revenue is growing faster than the valuation, and the IPO can beat OpenAI to market, securing pricing power as the first major US AI stock to go public.
Going public just means getting the money; the harder part is balancing the books afterward. The prospectus lists $895.4 billion in long-term compute commitments. This IPO can raise up to $64.3 billion, and adding $26 billion in strategic placements brings the total to $90.4 billion—only a tenth of those compute commitments. The $1.4 trillion valuation is a bet that the company can keep growing; its profits have yet to materialize.
Q3 revenue was $17 billion, with an adjusted operating margin of 15%, while the GAAP margin was still negative 3%. If the company can’t maintain that margin in its first earnings report after listing, a 17x price-to-sales ratio will look very expensive.
