$ETH Ethereum has fallen for six consecutive weeks, and 8 out of 10 people are bearish. So why is Beichen turning bullish now?
First, let me explain why I dare to turn bullish at this level. It’s not because of technical indicators, but because of sentiment. Open any group chat right now and 8 out of 10 people are calling for a drop, while the other 2 are asking, “How much further can it fall?” This kind of consensus has appeared many times over the past few years, and almost every time, it’s been near a bottom.
When fear reaches an extreme, everyone who was going to sell has already sold, and those who remain aren’t selling. With no selling pressure, the price naturally stops falling.
Now let’s look at the technicals. Ethereum has fallen for six consecutive weeks. The 2,000–1,900 range is where the largest concentration of Q4 holdings sits. If it holds, that’s the bottom. If it breaks, that’s a different story—but it hasn’t broken yet.
What about the rate hike? A 25-basis-point hike in December is a certainty, and the market has already priced it in. A 50-basis-point hike would only happen if inflation comes in higher than expected again. That’s a tail risk, not the base case.
And there are no major data releases left this month. Once the market has digested the rate hike, it will definitely look for a new narrative. When the narrative shifts, the direction can change easily. That’s a common pattern in the four-year cycle after the midterm elections.
The broader market is also playing along. U.S. storage stocks have basically fallen as far as they can, and over the past couple of days, Nvidia and SanDisk have clearly seen funds step in to support them. Storage stocks have been hit hardest in this downturn. If they stabilize, tech stocks will have a solid foundation.
So here’s my view: Around 2,000 is strong support. If the price holds above it, we’ll have a short-term bottom. Accumulate in stages below 2,050; cut losses if it breaks below 1,950. First target: 2,100!
#CPI高于预期，美股与BTC再度承压
First, let me explain why I dare to turn bullish at this level. It’s not because of technical indicators, but because of sentiment. Open any group chat right now and 8 out of 10 people are calling for a drop, while the other 2 are asking, “How much further can it fall?” This kind of consensus has appeared many times over the past few years, and almost every time, it’s been near a bottom.
When fear reaches an extreme, everyone who was going to sell has already sold, and those who remain aren’t selling. With no selling pressure, the price naturally stops falling.
Now let’s look at the technicals. Ethereum has fallen for six consecutive weeks. The 2,000–1,900 range is where the largest concentration of Q4 holdings sits. If it holds, that’s the bottom. If it breaks, that’s a different story—but it hasn’t broken yet.
What about the rate hike? A 25-basis-point hike in December is a certainty, and the market has already priced it in. A 50-basis-point hike would only happen if inflation comes in higher than expected again. That’s a tail risk, not the base case.
And there are no major data releases left this month. Once the market has digested the rate hike, it will definitely look for a new narrative. When the narrative shifts, the direction can change easily. That’s a common pattern in the four-year cycle after the midterm elections.
The broader market is also playing along. U.S. storage stocks have basically fallen as far as they can, and over the past couple of days, Nvidia and SanDisk have clearly seen funds step in to support them. Storage stocks have been hit hardest in this downturn. If they stabilize, tech stocks will have a solid foundation.
So here’s my view: Around 2,000 is strong support. If the price holds above it, we’ll have a short-term bottom. Accumulate in stages below 2,050; cut losses if it breaks below 1,950. First target: 2,100!
#CPI高于预期，美股与BTC再度承压
