INIT’s two afternoon candles closed above 0.33193, up a staggering +71% in 24h: the short squeeze is continuing, but perpetuals have barely followed
The midday outlook had just set the bar at “a close above 0.33193 at 13:00 before talking about the next leg,” and INIT delivered this afternoon—closing at 0.34196 at 12:00 and 0.38 at 13:00, with both candles closing above 0.33193. The 13:00 candle hit an intraday high of 0.395, setting a new 24-hour high. At the time of writing, spot is around 0.37, up about +71% over 24 hours, with roughly $38.8 million in trading volume—the biggest gainer today.
Volume has picked up too: about $2.44 million traded at 12:00 and about $2.64 million at 13:00, making these the two largest candles since last night’s big green candle at 22:00 ($4.36 million). The follow-up post published yesterday at 14:38 set the condition: “Get above 0.33193 before talking about the next leg.” That condition was officially triggered this afternoon—in technical terms, this is “confirmation of continued strength.”
But let’s be clear: this move isn’t backed by any fundamental positive news. I looked into it today, and the bearish backdrop is still the same: the November 9 investigation into the rollup shutdown, the November 10 L1 infrastructure key leak, and the unauthorized transfer of about $615,000. The last official statement was still dated November 10 at 07:07 UTC, with no restart timeline or compensation announced. This is the second chain shutdown in three weeks, yet the token price is rising even more aggressively—this isn’t a fundamental turnaround; it’s a short squeeze.
And the squeeze structure is even more extreme than yesterday’s: OKX perpetuals are now around 0.25, up only about +21% over 24 hours, while spot is at 0.37—a gap of about 33%. Perpetuals have barely followed spot’s rally. The funding rate is around -0.94% per period, close to the -1.0% floor, and open interest is about 2.26 million contracts (around $5.7 million). Shorts are being ground into the floor, but such a wide gap between spot and perpetuals is itself the clearest warning sign for anyone chasing the rally: if spot reverses, the move could be substantial.
My view: INIT’s “next leg” is technically open—the two candles closed above 0.33193, and the next level to watch is whether it can close above the previous high at 0.395. But this rally is a “one-way spot short squeeze,” not a “market-wide consensus rally”: perpetuals are trading at a 33% discount and funding is at the floor, which shows leveraged traders aren’t buying into this price. Chasing it means betting that spot will keep outperforming perpetuals in a one-way move. Win, and you profit; lose, and the convergence of the spot-perpetual spread could bury you.
The invalidation levels are clear: an hourly close back below 0.33193 would make these two afternoon candles a false breakout; a close below 0.228 would mean the squeeze is cooling off. A positive funding rate would be another sign that the rally is cooling. Conversely, only a close above 0.395 would confirm that the previous high has truly been taken out.
⚠️Risk warning: This article is for market commentary only and does not constitute investment advice. INIT has had two chain shutdowns in three weeks; its fundamentals remain a bearish backdrop, and volatility is extremely high. Be cautious about chasing the rally.
Discussion: Do you think INIT’s move will continue as a one-way spot short squeeze, or will spread convergence trigger a sell-off first? A: The squeeze continues toward 0.395; B: It first pulls back below 0.33193. Which side are you on?
$INIT #INIT #山寨币 #ShortSqueeze
The midday outlook had just set the bar at “a close above 0.33193 at 13:00 before talking about the next leg,” and INIT delivered this afternoon—closing at 0.34196 at 12:00 and 0.38 at 13:00, with both candles closing above 0.33193. The 13:00 candle hit an intraday high of 0.395, setting a new 24-hour high. At the time of writing, spot is around 0.37, up about +71% over 24 hours, with roughly $38.8 million in trading volume—the biggest gainer today.
Volume has picked up too: about $2.44 million traded at 12:00 and about $2.64 million at 13:00, making these the two largest candles since last night’s big green candle at 22:00 ($4.36 million). The follow-up post published yesterday at 14:38 set the condition: “Get above 0.33193 before talking about the next leg.” That condition was officially triggered this afternoon—in technical terms, this is “confirmation of continued strength.”
But let’s be clear: this move isn’t backed by any fundamental positive news. I looked into it today, and the bearish backdrop is still the same: the November 9 investigation into the rollup shutdown, the November 10 L1 infrastructure key leak, and the unauthorized transfer of about $615,000. The last official statement was still dated November 10 at 07:07 UTC, with no restart timeline or compensation announced. This is the second chain shutdown in three weeks, yet the token price is rising even more aggressively—this isn’t a fundamental turnaround; it’s a short squeeze.
And the squeeze structure is even more extreme than yesterday’s: OKX perpetuals are now around 0.25, up only about +21% over 24 hours, while spot is at 0.37—a gap of about 33%. Perpetuals have barely followed spot’s rally. The funding rate is around -0.94% per period, close to the -1.0% floor, and open interest is about 2.26 million contracts (around $5.7 million). Shorts are being ground into the floor, but such a wide gap between spot and perpetuals is itself the clearest warning sign for anyone chasing the rally: if spot reverses, the move could be substantial.
My view: INIT’s “next leg” is technically open—the two candles closed above 0.33193, and the next level to watch is whether it can close above the previous high at 0.395. But this rally is a “one-way spot short squeeze,” not a “market-wide consensus rally”: perpetuals are trading at a 33% discount and funding is at the floor, which shows leveraged traders aren’t buying into this price. Chasing it means betting that spot will keep outperforming perpetuals in a one-way move. Win, and you profit; lose, and the convergence of the spot-perpetual spread could bury you.
The invalidation levels are clear: an hourly close back below 0.33193 would make these two afternoon candles a false breakout; a close below 0.228 would mean the squeeze is cooling off. A positive funding rate would be another sign that the rally is cooling. Conversely, only a close above 0.395 would confirm that the previous high has truly been taken out.
⚠️Risk warning: This article is for market commentary only and does not constitute investment advice. INIT has had two chain shutdowns in three weeks; its fundamentals remain a bearish backdrop, and volatility is extremely high. Be cautious about chasing the rally.
Discussion: Do you think INIT’s move will continue as a one-way spot short squeeze, or will spread convergence trigger a sell-off first? A: The squeeze continues toward 0.395; B: It first pulls back below 0.33193. Which side are you on?
$INIT #INIT #山寨币 #ShortSqueeze
