After last night’s CPI came out, Ajian said to watch how far BTC could fall. I was expecting it to test the 73K level, but instead it broke below the 200-day moving average, dropping to around 72,700. ETH also came right up against the psychological 2,000 level. As for $ETH , I won’t even get into it—Ajian’s been saying for the past month that it’s been steadily declining, and it’s been weak for more than just a day or two. The main thing is to analyze $BTC .
I think the core reason is that Waller publicly turned hawkish before the CPI release, saying that if core CPI rose 0.3%, there could be a 50-basis-point rate hike in December. And damn, it came in at exactly 0.3%—not a fraction off. That immediately jolted the market into panic mode. Although we were all prepared for a rate hike in December, his remarks shifted the debate from whether rates would go up to whether they’d go up by 50 basis points, putting even more pressure on risk assets.
From a technical perspective alone, Ajian usually divides a downturn into three stages: first, profit-taking at high levels; second, a fresh wave of macroeconomic headwinds; and third, indiscriminate selling after confidence collapses. At this point, it looks like we haven’t even made it through the second stage. The main thing to watch is the 70,000 level, the final psychological line of defense. If it holds, we’ll see consolidation; if it breaks, that’ll mark the start of a new wave of declines in the third stage.
In short, don’t add to your positions or buy the dip. At least wait for the November 13 PPI release and see whether the market can settle the debate over the size of December’s rate hike. There’s no rush to act before then.
That’s all. DYOR#CPI高于预期，美股与BTC再度承压
I think the core reason is that Waller publicly turned hawkish before the CPI release, saying that if core CPI rose 0.3%, there could be a 50-basis-point rate hike in December. And damn, it came in at exactly 0.3%—not a fraction off. That immediately jolted the market into panic mode. Although we were all prepared for a rate hike in December, his remarks shifted the debate from whether rates would go up to whether they’d go up by 50 basis points, putting even more pressure on risk assets.
From a technical perspective alone, Ajian usually divides a downturn into three stages: first, profit-taking at high levels; second, a fresh wave of macroeconomic headwinds; and third, indiscriminate selling after confidence collapses. At this point, it looks like we haven’t even made it through the second stage. The main thing to watch is the 70,000 level, the final psychological line of defense. If it holds, we’ll see consolidation; if it breaks, that’ll mark the start of a new wave of declines in the third stage.
In short, don’t add to your positions or buy the dip. At least wait for the November 13 PPI release and see whether the market can settle the debate over the size of December’s rate hike. There’s no rush to act before then.
That’s all. DYOR#CPI高于预期，美股与BTC再度承压