The question from last night has an answer: the probability of a 50-basis-point hike in December has not fallen back to single digits; it’s still above 10%.
#HotCPIDecemberHikePriced went from about 1,300 views to around 100,000 overnight, with 1181 posts, and now ranks first on the trending list.
Checking the numbers: Investing.com, citing CME FedWatch, puts the odds of a 25-basis-point hike in December at about 88.8%, a 50-basis-point hike at about 11.2%, and no change at 0. FXBus’s bulletin just after 6 a.m. Taipei time put the figures at 88.5% and 11.5%. A week ago, the odds of a 50-basis-point hike were still 0.
There’s a contradiction here. On Tuesday in London, Fed Governor Waller put it plainly: if core CPI rises around 0.3% month over month or more, the Fed should consider a 50-basis-point hike in December; raising rates by just 25 basis points could damage the Fed’s credibility. October’s core CPI came in at exactly 0.3%, meeting the condition he set himself. But the market assigns only a little over 10% odds to a 50-basis-point hike, with 88% still betting on 25 basis points. Northlight, interviewed by CNBC, also said that while some are calling for 0.5%, they still expect just 0.25%.
My interpretation is that the market believes Waller’s personal threshold isn’t necessarily the same as the committee’s. This is my analysis, not a fact.
$BTC spot price is around $73,822, down about 0.99% over 24 hours, with a range of $72,727 to $74,996. It still hasn’t reclaimed the $75,000 level mentioned last night.
Two other items, briefly.
#AnthropicRejectsIPODelayValuationinQuestion has about 225,000 views and 1871 posts. The official announcement gives a roadshow price range of $70 to $78. CNBC, citing people familiar with the matter, says the target for retail allocation is about 20% and the book is already covered within the range. The company has yet to confirm November 18 as the pricing date.
#CanNvidiaEarningsEaseMarketConcerns? has about 38,000 views and 544 posts. Nvidia will report earnings after the market closes on November 17. The board added on Tuesday that it has asked former acting U.S. attorney for the Southern District of New York Joon Kim and the law firm Wachtell Lipton to lead an independent investigation. The stock fell more than 4% on Monday, then another 6% on Tuesday.
I’d like to hear your take: At the December meeting, will the Fed raise rates by 50 basis points outright to preserve its credibility, or raise them by 25 basis points first and then see? What’s your reasoning?
This is a roundup of trending topics, official announcements, and public reporting. It is not investment advice.
#HotCPIDecemberHikePriced went from about 1,300 views to around 100,000 overnight, with 1181 posts, and now ranks first on the trending list.
Checking the numbers: Investing.com, citing CME FedWatch, puts the odds of a 25-basis-point hike in December at about 88.8%, a 50-basis-point hike at about 11.2%, and no change at 0. FXBus’s bulletin just after 6 a.m. Taipei time put the figures at 88.5% and 11.5%. A week ago, the odds of a 50-basis-point hike were still 0.
There’s a contradiction here. On Tuesday in London, Fed Governor Waller put it plainly: if core CPI rises around 0.3% month over month or more, the Fed should consider a 50-basis-point hike in December; raising rates by just 25 basis points could damage the Fed’s credibility. October’s core CPI came in at exactly 0.3%, meeting the condition he set himself. But the market assigns only a little over 10% odds to a 50-basis-point hike, with 88% still betting on 25 basis points. Northlight, interviewed by CNBC, also said that while some are calling for 0.5%, they still expect just 0.25%.
My interpretation is that the market believes Waller’s personal threshold isn’t necessarily the same as the committee’s. This is my analysis, not a fact.
$BTC spot price is around $73,822, down about 0.99% over 24 hours, with a range of $72,727 to $74,996. It still hasn’t reclaimed the $75,000 level mentioned last night.
Two other items, briefly.
#AnthropicRejectsIPODelayValuationinQuestion has about 225,000 views and 1871 posts. The official announcement gives a roadshow price range of $70 to $78. CNBC, citing people familiar with the matter, says the target for retail allocation is about 20% and the book is already covered within the range. The company has yet to confirm November 18 as the pricing date.
#CanNvidiaEarningsEaseMarketConcerns? has about 38,000 views and 544 posts. Nvidia will report earnings after the market closes on November 17. The board added on Tuesday that it has asked former acting U.S. attorney for the Southern District of New York Joon Kim and the law firm Wachtell Lipton to lead an independent investigation. The stock fell more than 4% on Monday, then another 6% on Tuesday.
I’d like to hear your take: At the December meeting, will the Fed raise rates by 50 basis points outright to preserve its credibility, or raise them by 25 basis points first and then see? What’s your reasoning?
This is a roundup of trending topics, official announcements, and public reporting. It is not investment advice.
