The 500U-to-1M challenge account is down to just 1U!
The market's been messing with my head lately!
I've been glued to the market lately,
Watching the market with a bias.
So the market wrecked me.
The market is always right.
Not many people can understand that.
Maybe only those who've lost their pants can begin to understand.
The market doesn't lie,
and neither does the market's price action.
Lately, I've been obsessively convinced that
the price should bounce from this level,
and bounce quickly,
I'm so fixated on this because I think it'll repeat the move from 2023,
But the market environment has changed now.
1. Bitcoin is following the US stock market more closely now. Or you could say it's affected by the US market open, gold, the Nasdaq, and external markets.
2. That rapid rebound in 2023 happened because the ETFs had only just been approved, and ETF funds kept seeing net inflows. Recently, though, ETFs for all kinds of cryptocurrencies have been seeing net outflows, with not a hint of good news.
3. Back in 2023, Bitcoin wasn't as affected by external markets. Now, if you let your guard down for a moment, the Americans will lead you around by the nose. The environment has changed, but my thinking is still stuck in the past. That's just not right.
4. I've read and listened to a few books recently, but they haven't really helped improve my trading in any fundamental way. I still haven't put the long-term strategy I believe in into practice.
5. I keep thinking about getting in early, but I haven't considered that I'm essentially betting on the market bottom right now. And there can only ever be one market bottom. In other words, I've been trading against the trend this whole time. Until the market bottom is truly in, all my repeated attempts will just get mercilessly stopped out. But because I got in many days too early, I've been getting stopped out day after day. My position was a bit bigger at first, then I made it a little smaller. If the market really does reverse later, I might not have much margin left at all.
6. Altcoins and major coins fall with the market but don't rise with it. Last night, ZEC seemed to have a bit of a head start and was rising more than Bitcoin, so I added to my position. Then it reversed as soon as the US market opened. It really changed its tune faster than you can turn a page.
7. I actually mentioned in my previous post that I was trading on too many accounts at once. I also had too many different positions open. I keep opening several trades at the same time without even realizing it. But when a big move hits, I'm scrambling to manually stop out of them all. Lately, I've been biased toward expecting a rapid rebound, so I keep opening countertrend positions, and lots of small ones. I thought I'd try a strategy of opening a starter position and then adding to it. But I keep getting mercilessly stopped out. I'm starting to lose control of my mindset.
8. Also, I looked back at the candlestick chart around March 11, 2023, and the pullback from the high at the time was near the 0.618 level. The price hasn't even reached 0.618 this time. What the hell am I doing?!!!! If I'm going to trade based on historical patterns, why am I blindly trying to catch the bottom without doing my research?! I'm such a dumbass!
If the price really shoots up quickly from here, I might not dare to trade it anyway. Or if I do, and rush in to chase the rally, I could end up losing even more. That's human nature!
I'll read some more today.
The account for the 500U-to-1M challenge is down to just 1U! It's been a little over three months since the challenge began on 20260803. During this time, Teacher Aoying's account has multiplied dozens of times. I can only call this a failure.
The above is just my challenge account; I'm also trading other accounts. Those have been losing badly too, so I'll say no more.
Get yourself back in a good headspace!
Get ready to start over!
#CPI高于预期，美股与BTC再度承压
