Call options account for 56% of open interest, but yesterday the highest trading volume was in $74,000 put options expiring November 13—everyone talks bullish, but their trades are all about buying insurance.
Deribit’s weekly options expire at 16:00 Beijing time on Friday, November 13. A few figures are interesting when viewed together:
Total $BTC options open interest: $31.73 billion, with 240,193 calls and 186,945 puts; calls account for 56.23%
But 24-hour trading volume tells the opposite story: 22,336 puts and 20,920 calls; puts account for 51.64%
Among Deribit contracts expiring November 13, the $81,000 call has the largest open interest at 8,306.8 contracts, while the $74,000 put leads in trading volume at 3,563.4 contracts
Max pain is near $75,000
The current price is around $73,700. Intraday on November 10, it fell as low as $72,584; over the past 24 hours, liquidations across the market totaled about $356 million, with longs accounting for nearly 80%
This whale’s take is that the options market is a classic case of talking bullish but acting cautious: much of the call open interest comes from older positions opened at higher prices, and no one dares to add more at these levels. New money would rather pay for $74,000 put protection than chase $81,000 calls. Max pain at $75,000 is above the current price, so there’s a fair amount of pull toward $75,000 before expiry. But after CPI came in above expectations, expectations of a December rate hike are still in play, and Bitfinex’s $72,350–$79,400 range remains weighted toward the lower half. Two scenarios: if the price climbs back above $75,000, call options will recover in value, and short covering could give it a push; if it breaks below $72,350, the $74,000 puts will come out on top and volatility could increase further. Don’t make a big directional bet before Friday’s 16:00 settlement. Spot holders can just watch from the sidelines—keep your livelihood secure first.
Deribit’s weekly options expire at 16:00 Beijing time on Friday, November 13. A few figures are interesting when viewed together:
Total $BTC options open interest: $31.73 billion, with 240,193 calls and 186,945 puts; calls account for 56.23%
But 24-hour trading volume tells the opposite story: 22,336 puts and 20,920 calls; puts account for 51.64%
Among Deribit contracts expiring November 13, the $81,000 call has the largest open interest at 8,306.8 contracts, while the $74,000 put leads in trading volume at 3,563.4 contracts
Max pain is near $75,000
The current price is around $73,700. Intraday on November 10, it fell as low as $72,584; over the past 24 hours, liquidations across the market totaled about $356 million, with longs accounting for nearly 80%
This whale’s take is that the options market is a classic case of talking bullish but acting cautious: much of the call open interest comes from older positions opened at higher prices, and no one dares to add more at these levels. New money would rather pay for $74,000 put protection than chase $81,000 calls. Max pain at $75,000 is above the current price, so there’s a fair amount of pull toward $75,000 before expiry. But after CPI came in above expectations, expectations of a December rate hike are still in play, and Bitfinex’s $72,350–$79,400 range remains weighted toward the lower half. Two scenarios: if the price climbs back above $75,000, call options will recover in value, and short covering could give it a push; if it breaks below $72,350, the $74,000 puts will come out on top and volatility could increase further. Don’t make a big directional bet before Friday’s 16:00 settlement. Spot holders can just watch from the sidelines—keep your livelihood secure first.
