The three major U.S. stock indexes had just staged a big rally, but one CPI report on the evening of November 10 sent them right back down.
According to TipRanks, the October CPI released at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time on November 10 rose 0.4% month over month, versus expectations of 0.3%; core CPI rose 0.3%, versus expectations of 0.2%. Both came in hotter than expected.
The most consequential part was what came next. According to TipRanks, Fed Governor Waller had said before the data came out that if core prices rose 0.3% or more in October, the Fed should consider a 50-basis-point rate hike at its December meeting. Core CPI has now landed right at 0.3%. Note that this is a comparison with his earlier remarks; it does not mean the Fed has already made a decision.
How did the markets react? In U.S. stocks, according to TipRanks, at 8:40 a.m. Nasdaq 100 futures were down 0.95% and S&P futures were down 0.40%. These are premarket futures, not closing prices, and I couldn't find the closing data for November 10. As for BTC, according to The Block, at 2:38 p.m. Eastern Time on November 10, BTC fell below $74,000, trading at around $73,363, down about 1.6% on the day.
I looked into where analysts stand: Mr. Huang at Bitget is watching the 200-day moving average, at around $73,200; Mena at 21Shares sees $73,000 as key support. If it breaks decisively, the next stop could be around $69,000. To the upside, the first level to watch on a rebound is $78,000. These are their views, not definitive conclusions.
My take is that every inflation report before the December meeting will be treated like a vote on a rate hike. I don't know how it will play out, but whether the $73,000–$73,200 area holds is far more useful to watch than guessing the CPI number itself. Don't go all in, and think about your stop-loss level in advance.
Are you planning to buy around $73,000, or wait and see if it breaks below that level?
$BTC
#CPI
#cpi高于预期，美股与btc再度承压
According to TipRanks, the October CPI released at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time on November 10 rose 0.4% month over month, versus expectations of 0.3%; core CPI rose 0.3%, versus expectations of 0.2%. Both came in hotter than expected.
The most consequential part was what came next. According to TipRanks, Fed Governor Waller had said before the data came out that if core prices rose 0.3% or more in October, the Fed should consider a 50-basis-point rate hike at its December meeting. Core CPI has now landed right at 0.3%. Note that this is a comparison with his earlier remarks; it does not mean the Fed has already made a decision.
How did the markets react? In U.S. stocks, according to TipRanks, at 8:40 a.m. Nasdaq 100 futures were down 0.95% and S&P futures were down 0.40%. These are premarket futures, not closing prices, and I couldn't find the closing data for November 10. As for BTC, according to The Block, at 2:38 p.m. Eastern Time on November 10, BTC fell below $74,000, trading at around $73,363, down about 1.6% on the day.
I looked into where analysts stand: Mr. Huang at Bitget is watching the 200-day moving average, at around $73,200; Mena at 21Shares sees $73,000 as key support. If it breaks decisively, the next stop could be around $69,000. To the upside, the first level to watch on a rebound is $78,000. These are their views, not definitive conclusions.
My take is that every inflation report before the December meeting will be treated like a vote on a rate hike. I don't know how it will play out, but whether the $73,000–$73,200 area holds is far more useful to watch than guessing the CPI number itself. Don't go all in, and think about your stop-loss level in advance.
Are you planning to buy around $73,000, or wait and see if it breaks below that level?
$BTC
#CPI
#cpi高于预期，美股与btc再度承压
