#比特币 #宏观经济 $BTC Last night’s CPI report made one thing clear. This wasn’t a flight to safety; it was a broad repricing of all non-yielding assets.
October CPI rose 0.4% month over month, and core CPI rose 0.3%—both above expectations. Core CPI has now exceeded expectations for the third consecutive month. The bond market reacted more directly than stocks: the 2-year yield jumped 18 basis points in a single day to 4.725%, its biggest one-day rise since April 2025. The 10-year yield briefly topped 5%, and the U.S. Dollar Index climbed above 102.2.
Bitcoin fell 3% to $73,052, down 17% year to date. But what’s really worth noting is that spot gold fell 2.61% on the same day, while silver dropped 3.54%. If this were simply a decline in risk appetite, money should be flowing into gold. Gold and Bitcoin falling together suggests investors aren’t selling risk assets—they’re selling non-yielding assets and buying a risk-free yield of 5%.
Three things are still worth watching. Leverage hasn’t come down; in fact, total open interest across the market rose 6.14% to $345.1 billion. Liquidations over 24 hours totaled $630 million, of which $511 million were long positions. Prices are falling while positions are growing. This isn’t a flush-out; it’s fuel piling up for the next move. Marginal buyers are absent, with spot ETFs seeing net outflows of about $1.5 billion since November 2. Crypto is weaker than the broader macro picture: Ethereum fell 3.8%, and ETH/BTC dropped to 0.0278.
I’m bearish, but I’m not chasing the decline. A downturn driven by discount rates takes its cue from the bond market, which changes its mind every day. I’m not sure whether there will be a 50-basis-point rate hike in December.
Here are the conditions that would prove this view wrong: if the 10-year yield falls back below 4.7% and the U.S. Dollar Index drops below 101, this thesis no longer holds. In that case, this pullback should be seen as a problem specific to crypto—a very different situation.
October CPI rose 0.4% month over month, and core CPI rose 0.3%—both above expectations. Core CPI has now exceeded expectations for the third consecutive month. The bond market reacted more directly than stocks: the 2-year yield jumped 18 basis points in a single day to 4.725%, its biggest one-day rise since April 2025. The 10-year yield briefly topped 5%, and the U.S. Dollar Index climbed above 102.2.
Bitcoin fell 3% to $73,052, down 17% year to date. But what’s really worth noting is that spot gold fell 2.61% on the same day, while silver dropped 3.54%. If this were simply a decline in risk appetite, money should be flowing into gold. Gold and Bitcoin falling together suggests investors aren’t selling risk assets—they’re selling non-yielding assets and buying a risk-free yield of 5%.
Three things are still worth watching. Leverage hasn’t come down; in fact, total open interest across the market rose 6.14% to $345.1 billion. Liquidations over 24 hours totaled $630 million, of which $511 million were long positions. Prices are falling while positions are growing. This isn’t a flush-out; it’s fuel piling up for the next move. Marginal buyers are absent, with spot ETFs seeing net outflows of about $1.5 billion since November 2. Crypto is weaker than the broader macro picture: Ethereum fell 3.8%, and ETH/BTC dropped to 0.0278.
I’m bearish, but I’m not chasing the decline. A downturn driven by discount rates takes its cue from the bond market, which changes its mind every day. I’m not sure whether there will be a 50-basis-point rate hike in December.
Here are the conditions that would prove this view wrong: if the 10-year yield falls back below 4.7% and the U.S. Dollar Index drops below 101, this thesis no longer holds. In that case, this pullback should be seen as a problem specific to crypto—a very different situation.