According to CME FedWatch, the probability of the Fed raising rates by 25 basis points in December has jumped to approximately 85%–99%, with Fed Governor Waller explicitly stating he supports a 25 basis point hike in December and does not rule out 50 basis points if inflation data exceeds expectations.

Key signals:

🔹 Dallas Fed President Logan: At least two more 25 basis point hikes needed, possibly at a faster pace this winter

🔹 Waller: If core CPI rises 0.3% or more month-over-month, a 50 basis point move should be considered

🔹 October CPI exceeded expectations, with market pricing for a 50 basis point hike in December rising from near zero to over 13%

For crypto markets, this means liquidity tightening expectations are strengthening, and risk assets may face short-term pressure. However, if the rate hike lands and the Fed signals a pause, it could instead become a "sell the rumor, buy the fact" turning point.

The final decision depends on the December FOMC meeting.

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