CPI comes in hotter than expected. $BTC holds steady at first, then breaks down: shortly after the U.S. stock market opened, it fell below $73,000.
October CPI rose 0.4% month over month, above expectations of 0.3%. Core CPI rose 0.3%, also above expectations of 0.2%. When the data first came out, BTC was knocked from $74,400 to around $73,500, then bounced back above $74,000, making it look like it was holding up. But once U.S. markets opened, selling pressure surged again, pushing it down to $72,800—its lowest level since August 20. It’s now just above $73,000, sitting just below the 200-day moving average (around $73,200).
BTC wasn’t the only one to fall: $ETH briefly dropped to $2,006 and is now at $2,024, down 4.7% on the day; XRP fell to around $1.03. More than $632 million in positions were liquidated across the crypto market in 24 hours, including $511 million in long positions. Nearly 210,000 traders were liquidated, with the largest single liquidation being a $15.56 million BTC long on OKX.
My take: This sell-off isn’t about that one CPI number—it’s about the tension behind it. The odds of a 25-basis-point rate hike in December have climbed to 85%, while spot ETFs saw another $201 million in net outflows on Monday. BlackRock’s IBIT has seen outflows for seven consecutive days, totaling $1.66 billion. The money waiting to buy the dip has stepped aside, leaving prices vulnerable to a sharp break.
There are three scenarios to watch next: if BTC can reclaim $73,000 tonight and move back above the 200-day moving average, today’s drop may prove to be a false breakdown. If it can’t hold $73,000 at the close, the next key level is $70,000. On the way up, it first needs to reclaim $75,000. Until the trend becomes clearer, ease off the leverage and watch for ETF flows to turn positive—that’s the signal that buyers are coming back.
October CPI rose 0.4% month over month, above expectations of 0.3%. Core CPI rose 0.3%, also above expectations of 0.2%. When the data first came out, BTC was knocked from $74,400 to around $73,500, then bounced back above $74,000, making it look like it was holding up. But once U.S. markets opened, selling pressure surged again, pushing it down to $72,800—its lowest level since August 20. It’s now just above $73,000, sitting just below the 200-day moving average (around $73,200).
BTC wasn’t the only one to fall: $ETH briefly dropped to $2,006 and is now at $2,024, down 4.7% on the day; XRP fell to around $1.03. More than $632 million in positions were liquidated across the crypto market in 24 hours, including $511 million in long positions. Nearly 210,000 traders were liquidated, with the largest single liquidation being a $15.56 million BTC long on OKX.
My take: This sell-off isn’t about that one CPI number—it’s about the tension behind it. The odds of a 25-basis-point rate hike in December have climbed to 85%, while spot ETFs saw another $201 million in net outflows on Monday. BlackRock’s IBIT has seen outflows for seven consecutive days, totaling $1.66 billion. The money waiting to buy the dip has stepped aside, leaving prices vulnerable to a sharp break.
There are three scenarios to watch next: if BTC can reclaim $73,000 tonight and move back above the 200-day moving average, today’s drop may prove to be a false breakdown. If it can’t hold $73,000 at the close, the next key level is $70,000. On the way up, it first needs to reclaim $75,000. Until the trend becomes clearer, ease off the leverage and watch for ETF flows to turn positive—that’s the signal that buyers are coming back.
