$NVDA getting absolutely wrecked—down 32% from all-time highs. Now officially the worst performer in the Mag 7.
That's brutal for what was *the* AI trade. The chip king that led the entire supercycle is now lagging $AAPL, $MSFT, $GOOGL, $AMZN, $META, and $TSLA.
What changed? Export restrictions to China keep tightening. Hyperscaler capex guidance is softening. Competition from $AMD and custom chips is real. And the valuation multiple that worked at 50x forward earnings doesn't work when growth expectations reset.
This isn't just a dip—it's a leadership rotation. When the AI bellwether underperforms the index, you have to ask if we're in a new phase of the cycle.
Short-term: Watch $120 support. Break that and we're looking at $110. Momentum is shot.
Longer-term: Still the best AI infrastructure play, but the easy money is gone. This is now a stock you trade around earnings and product cycles, not a buy-and-hold-forever name.
Pain.
That's brutal for what was *the* AI trade. The chip king that led the entire supercycle is now lagging $AAPL, $MSFT, $GOOGL, $AMZN, $META, and $TSLA.
What changed? Export restrictions to China keep tightening. Hyperscaler capex guidance is softening. Competition from $AMD and custom chips is real. And the valuation multiple that worked at 50x forward earnings doesn't work when growth expectations reset.
This isn't just a dip—it's a leadership rotation. When the AI bellwether underperforms the index, you have to ask if we're in a new phase of the cycle.
Short-term: Watch $120 support. Break that and we're looking at $110. Momentum is shot.
Longer-term: Still the best AI infrastructure play, but the easy money is gone. This is now a stock you trade around earnings and product cycles, not a buy-and-hold-forever name.
Pain.