FED meeting Dec 9th is locked in for a hike — 100% odds now per FED WATCH.
Only question: quarter-point or half?
0.25% = 85%
0.5% = 15%
Market's pricing the smaller move but that 15% tail keeps vol interesting. Watch how $BTC and risk assets react if we get the surprise 50bps — could flush stops fast. Rate hikes compress liquidity, tighten conditions, and usually punish leveraged longs in the short run.
No trade until the print, but post-decision volatility is where the setups live. Let the dust settle, then scalp the reaction.
Only question: quarter-point or half?
0.25% = 85%
0.5% = 15%
Market's pricing the smaller move but that 15% tail keeps vol interesting. Watch how $BTC and risk assets react if we get the surprise 50bps — could flush stops fast. Rate hikes compress liquidity, tighten conditions, and usually punish leveraged longs in the short run.
No trade until the print, but post-decision volatility is where the setups live. Let the dust settle, then scalp the reaction.
