#CPI高于预期，美股与BTC再度承压 #黄仁勋因婚外情致歉，英伟达启动独立调查 #美伊和谈提振市场，美股强势反弹 Tonight's October CPI report will determine whether Warsh raises rates on December 9; markets are pricing in about an 86% chance. Last week's payrolls rose by 165,000 and unemployment was 4.1%, giving hawks more confidence. The last FOMC vote was 10–2, with two officials already supporting a rate hike. Because of last year's government shutdown, this report will not include year-over-year figures; the focus is on core CPI month over month, to two decimal places. Goldman Sachs forecasts 0.16%, below the market's 0.20%; UBS and JPMorgan forecast 0.23%. Goldman says flat airfares, a 2.5% drop in health insurance, and a 1.5% fall in used cars will weigh on the reading, though health insurance does not feed through to PCE. The shutdown also artificially inflated the seasonally adjusted figure by about 5 basis points; stripping that out puts it at about 0.11%. A soft CPI reading may not stop the Fed, as core PCE is still running at 0.20%–0.23%. A soft CPI reading could spur a rally, but Friday's PPI may erase the gains; a strong CPI reading would lock in a rate hike and trigger a steeper selloff. Hawks won't readily change their stance over a 0.16% reading. $BTC
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