After the CPI data was released, $BTC and $ETH came under short-term pressure together. Will the market continue to fall?
U.S. CPI rose 0.4% month over month in October, above expectations of 0.3%. Core CPI also rose 0.3%, likewise exceeding market expectations. Inflation did not cool as much as the market had hoped, directly dampening investors’ expectations for Fed easing.
Looking at the market, BTC has fallen below $74,000, while ETH has pulled back to around $2,050. Selling pressure has increased noticeably in the short term. Meanwhile, about $140 million in positions were liquidated across the market in the past hour, including approximately $138 million in long positions. This shows that the decline also triggered a concentrated flush of leveraged longs.
More notably, expectations of a Fed rate hike in December are now close to 100%. This means the market is psychologically well prepared for further monetary tightening. Higher interest rates for longer are not good news for risk assets like BTC and ETH in the short term.
#黄仁勋因婚外情致歉，英伟达启动独立调查
But I don’t think we can yet conclude that the market will keep falling.
First, a large number of long positions have already been liquidated. If selling pressure gradually eases from here, we could instead see an oversold bounce.
Second, a substantial portion of rate-hike expectations has already been priced in. What matters now is the Fed’s actual messaging and whether upcoming inflation data continues to worsen.
#Anthropic拒绝延期IPO，本周路演估值几何？
Third, watch whether BTC can climb back above $74,000 and whether ETH can hold around $2,000. If funds flow back into the market, there is still a chance of a short-term recovery. Otherwise, if key support levels give way, be prepared for a further drop.
My view: Be cautious in the short term. Don’t rush to buy the dip, and don’t blindly short the market. What really matters is whether spot buyers return after this wave of liquidations is over.
#CPI前瞻，12月利率走向迎关键考验
Is this sharp plunge the start of a new downturn, or an opportunity to rebound after a leverage flush? I think the flow of funds over the next day or two will give us a clearer answer.
[你们觉得，BTC还能守住74000吗？](https://app.binance.com/uni-qr/4QX1coiY)
U.S. CPI rose 0.4% month over month in October, above expectations of 0.3%. Core CPI also rose 0.3%, likewise exceeding market expectations. Inflation did not cool as much as the market had hoped, directly dampening investors’ expectations for Fed easing.
Looking at the market, BTC has fallen below $74,000, while ETH has pulled back to around $2,050. Selling pressure has increased noticeably in the short term. Meanwhile, about $140 million in positions were liquidated across the market in the past hour, including approximately $138 million in long positions. This shows that the decline also triggered a concentrated flush of leveraged longs.
More notably, expectations of a Fed rate hike in December are now close to 100%. This means the market is psychologically well prepared for further monetary tightening. Higher interest rates for longer are not good news for risk assets like BTC and ETH in the short term.
#黄仁勋因婚外情致歉，英伟达启动独立调查
But I don’t think we can yet conclude that the market will keep falling.
First, a large number of long positions have already been liquidated. If selling pressure gradually eases from here, we could instead see an oversold bounce.
Second, a substantial portion of rate-hike expectations has already been priced in. What matters now is the Fed’s actual messaging and whether upcoming inflation data continues to worsen.
#Anthropic拒绝延期IPO，本周路演估值几何？
Third, watch whether BTC can climb back above $74,000 and whether ETH can hold around $2,000. If funds flow back into the market, there is still a chance of a short-term recovery. Otherwise, if key support levels give way, be prepared for a further drop.
My view: Be cautious in the short term. Don’t rush to buy the dip, and don’t blindly short the market. What really matters is whether spot buyers return after this wave of liquidations is over.
#CPI前瞻，12月利率走向迎关键考验
Is this sharp plunge the start of a new downturn, or an opportunity to rebound after a leverage flush? I think the flow of funds over the next day or two will give us a clearer answer.
[你们觉得，BTC还能守住74000吗？](https://app.binance.com/uni-qr/4QX1coiY)
