October CPI just printed hotter than anyone wanted. Headline came in at 0.4% month-over-month when the street was looking for 0.3%. Core also missed — 0.3% versus the 0.2% consensus. No year-over-year comps because of last year's shutdown mess, but the month-over-month alone tells the story.
Shelter's doing the heavy lifting again — accounted for roughly 30% of the upside surprise. That's the sticky stuff the Fed actually cares about, and it's not cooperating.
December rate hike odds just spiked to 98.8%. Market's pricing it as done. If you were holding out hope for a pause, this CPI print killed it. The Fed's going to tighten again, and now it's just a question of how long they stay there.
Shelter's doing the heavy lifting again — accounted for roughly 30% of the upside surprise. That's the sticky stuff the Fed actually cares about, and it's not cooperating.
December rate hike odds just spiked to 98.8%. Market's pricing it as done. If you were holding out hope for a pause, this CPI print killed it. The Fed's going to tighten again, and now it's just a question of how long they stay there.
