Countdown to October CPI: Inflation figure could steer markets tonight
At 8:30 PM tonight (10/11), the U.S. will release its October Consumer Price Index (CPI)—the last major inflation data point before the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) December meeting, and the figure Wall Street and crypto markets are watching most closely this week.
Market expectations: headline CPI will rise 0.3% month over month (up 0.6% in September), while core CPI—which excludes food and energy—will rise 0.2% (up 0.3% in September). One unusual aspect of this report: it will include only month-over-month figures, with no year-over-year figures, because last year’s government shutdown caused the October 2025 data to be missed.
Two main scenarios for tonight:
• CPI comes in below expectations: inflationary pressures ease, strengthening expectations that the Fed will take a gentler approach in December—a favorable scenario for risk assets.
• CPI comes in above expectations: inflation remains “stubborn,” raising the likelihood of further Fed tightening—the market could well see a sharp bout of volatility as soon as the data is released.
$BTC heads into the release cautiously: trading around 74.327 USDT, down 0.83% over 24 hours, having slipped from its daily high of 75.568 USDT and retreating to the lower half of its weekly range. The support zone to hold remains 73.750–73.500 USDT; above that, 75.600 USDT is the first resistance level bulls need to reclaim if they want to reverse course after the news.
What do you think—will tonight’s CPI come in “cooler” than expected and let the market breathe a sigh of relief, or will it be another hot reading?
(Not investment advice)
At 8:30 PM tonight (10/11), the U.S. will release its October Consumer Price Index (CPI)—the last major inflation data point before the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) December meeting, and the figure Wall Street and crypto markets are watching most closely this week.
Market expectations: headline CPI will rise 0.3% month over month (up 0.6% in September), while core CPI—which excludes food and energy—will rise 0.2% (up 0.3% in September). One unusual aspect of this report: it will include only month-over-month figures, with no year-over-year figures, because last year’s government shutdown caused the October 2025 data to be missed.
Two main scenarios for tonight:
• CPI comes in below expectations: inflationary pressures ease, strengthening expectations that the Fed will take a gentler approach in December—a favorable scenario for risk assets.
• CPI comes in above expectations: inflation remains “stubborn,” raising the likelihood of further Fed tightening—the market could well see a sharp bout of volatility as soon as the data is released.
$BTC heads into the release cautiously: trading around 74.327 USDT, down 0.83% over 24 hours, having slipped from its daily high of 75.568 USDT and retreating to the lower half of its weekly range. The support zone to hold remains 73.750–73.500 USDT; above that, 75.600 USDT is the first resistance level bulls need to reclaim if they want to reverse course after the news.
What do you think—will tonight’s CPI come in “cooler” than expected and let the market breathe a sigh of relief, or will it be another hot reading?
(Not investment advice)
