The bottom line: tonight’s 9:30 CPI report will put Monday’s big rally to the test. If the data is good, Monday’s 2.35% gain may mark the start of a rebound; if it’s bad, that rally was just a dead-cat bounce, and the gains will be given back.

Here’s what happened. Before the market even got the CPI report today, it got a blunt warning. Fed Governor Waller, speaking in London, laid it out plainly: a rate hike in December is likely, and if core CPI rises by more than 0.3%, a hefty 50-basis-point hike could also be on the table. His remarks sent the two-year Treasury yield jumping 6 basis points, to 4.61%. Think about it: the expected core CPI reading is just 0.2%, while Waller drew the line at 0.3%—a gap of just 0.1 percentage point. Tonight, that one number could turn the whole market on its head.

Crypto basically went nowhere today. Bitcoin is hovering around 74,400, barely moving in 24 hours, while Ethereum is just above 2,100, down a little over 1%. U.S. stocks went on a tear Monday, but crypto didn’t follow, and it doesn’t look like it’s catching up today either. The Fear & Greed Index is at 32, still in fear territory, though it’s recovered a little from 29 yesterday and 25 last Saturday. The most frightening part for sentiment may be over, but no one would say we’re out of the woods yet.

The money flows don’t look great. Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of $201 million on Monday. BlackRock’s IBIT alone saw $213 million flow out, marking seven consecutive trading days of net outflows. Ethereum ETFs also saw $185 million in outflows on Monday. Put simply, money is still flowing out of ETFs, yet Bitcoin is holding above $74,000—there are plenty of sellers, but buyers are stepping in around $74,000. That’s the reality of the market right now: it’s neither crashing nor rising, just treading water and waiting for tonight’s data to point the way.

On Wall Street, Monday was the best day since April: the S&P 500 rose 2.35% to close at 7,549, the Nasdaq gained 2.74%, the Dow jumped 1,104 points, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 6.9%, and the VIX fell 22% in a single day. But futures were mostly flat before today’s open: the S&P 500 was up 0.1%, the Dow 0.3%, while the Nasdaq 100 was down 0.2%. After a day of gains, everyone has hit pause and is waiting for 21:30. Gold rose to 4,148 on Monday, oil fell 4.4%, and both the safe-haven and inflation trades are waiting for the same answer.

There isn’t much to keep an eye on tomorrow. First, the CPI itself: expectations are for headline inflation of +0.3% and core inflation of +0.2%, versus +0.6% and +0.3% in September. There won’t be a year-over-year figure this time—the government shutdown last year meant prices for October 2025 weren’t collected, so there’s nothing to compare against. If core comes in at 0.3%, Waller’s talk of 50 basis points won’t have been just talk; if core is 0.1%, Monday’s rally will have room to continue. Earnings are quiet: tomorrow is Veterans Day, with U.S. stock markets open as usual but bond markets closed. Corteva is the only S&P 500 company reporting after the close. The real action is after Thursday’s close, when Cisco and Applied Materials report. For Bitcoin, the 50-week moving average was just breached yesterday. If tonight’s data are good, getting back above that average would mean reclaiming this key level; if the data disappoint, whether $74,000 can hold becomes a real question.

Don’t place your bets too early tonight. Before the data comes out, every move is a guess. Get it right and it’s luck; get it wrong and it’s a costly lesson. The question isn’t who’s boldest, but who still has money left to play.

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