Global equity funds are pouring into the U.S. stock market, while Bitcoin has decoupled from the latest stock rally
Nov. 10 — According to the Kobeissi Letter, global stock funds attracted a record $266 billion over the past four weeks, while Bitcoin failed to ride the wave of buying in equities.
In terms of fund flows, U.S. equity funds have been the market’s biggest winners. They have attracted a cumulative $2.1 trillion since 2020, including $1.5 trillion since the start of 2024.
Global equity funds saw inflows of $89 billion last week, of which U.S. equity funds accounted for $32 billion. By comparison, emerging-market equity funds in Asia attracted $470 billion, while European equity funds suffered outflows of $426 billion.
But this stock-market spending spree is facing a test from tighter monetary policy. On October 28, the Federal Reserve voted 10–2 to keep interest rates in the 3.75%–4% range. Governors Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack dissented in favor of a rate hike.
Meanwhile, data from the CME FedWatch tool show that the probability of a 25-basis-point Fed rate hike in December has risen to 97.9%, while the probability of a rate cut is zero.
As expectations of rate hikes continue to build, funds are flowing more rapidly into higher-yielding U.S. Treasuries, which will undoubtedly put significant pressure on Bitcoin, a non-yielding asset.
Market performance has borne out this trend. On Friday, Bitcoin lagged the Nasdaq’s rebound, while U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of $1.28 billion between November 2 and 6.
In addition, financial markets face a key test on inflation this week. Tuesday’s CPI data will test market expectations for interest rates. The $42 billion auction of 10-year Treasuries scheduled for the same day may also face the challenge of weak initial demand.
Analysts say funds are currently highly concentrated in equities. If the Fed shifts to a more hawkish stance, risk assets will be hit first; if funds continue to shun cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin may remain under pressure.
However, if CPI data come in below expectations, bets on rate hikes will cool, which could give the currently tense market sentiment some breathing room.
#比特币 #资金流向
Nov. 10 — According to the Kobeissi Letter, global stock funds attracted a record $266 billion over the past four weeks, while Bitcoin failed to ride the wave of buying in equities.
In terms of fund flows, U.S. equity funds have been the market’s biggest winners. They have attracted a cumulative $2.1 trillion since 2020, including $1.5 trillion since the start of 2024.
Global equity funds saw inflows of $89 billion last week, of which U.S. equity funds accounted for $32 billion. By comparison, emerging-market equity funds in Asia attracted $470 billion, while European equity funds suffered outflows of $426 billion.
But this stock-market spending spree is facing a test from tighter monetary policy. On October 28, the Federal Reserve voted 10–2 to keep interest rates in the 3.75%–4% range. Governors Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack dissented in favor of a rate hike.
Meanwhile, data from the CME FedWatch tool show that the probability of a 25-basis-point Fed rate hike in December has risen to 97.9%, while the probability of a rate cut is zero.
As expectations of rate hikes continue to build, funds are flowing more rapidly into higher-yielding U.S. Treasuries, which will undoubtedly put significant pressure on Bitcoin, a non-yielding asset.
Market performance has borne out this trend. On Friday, Bitcoin lagged the Nasdaq’s rebound, while U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of $1.28 billion between November 2 and 6.
In addition, financial markets face a key test on inflation this week. Tuesday’s CPI data will test market expectations for interest rates. The $42 billion auction of 10-year Treasuries scheduled for the same day may also face the challenge of weak initial demand.
Analysts say funds are currently highly concentrated in equities. If the Fed shifts to a more hawkish stance, risk assets will be hit first; if funds continue to shun cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin may remain under pressure.
However, if CPI data come in below expectations, bets on rate hikes will cool, which could give the currently tense market sentiment some breathing room.
#比特币 #资金流向
