Will tonight’s CPI figure come in high or low?
Let’s take a detailed look at what to expect.
The market expects month-over-month CPI to come in at 0.3%, compared with 0.6% previously.
Interestingly, since January this year, the figure has come in below or in line with expectations in most months.
According to EIA data, U.S. gasoline prices fell by more than 4% in October. It takes time for changes in international oil prices to feed through to local prices, and international oil prices declined in September. That’s why the expected figure is 0.3%, half the previous reading.
On Wall Street, Morgan Stanley expects 0.19%, Goldman Sachs 0.21%, and JPMorgan 0.25%.
In other words,
quite a few Wall Street firms also think the figure is more likely to come in below or in line with expectations, with a smaller chance of exceeding them.
As for core CPI, the method used to fill in this month’s data could cause seasonal adjustment factors to be inaccurate.
Once energy and food are excluded, fluctuations in public transportation, clothing, and hotel prices will stand out more. This could cause considerable volatility in the core CPI figure, and it’s also unclear whether it will be revised later.
So core CPI is a little hard to predict. Let’s see what the figures show when they’re released tonight, and I’ll explain them right away.
Let’s take a detailed look at what to expect.
The market expects month-over-month CPI to come in at 0.3%, compared with 0.6% previously.
Interestingly, since January this year, the figure has come in below or in line with expectations in most months.
According to EIA data, U.S. gasoline prices fell by more than 4% in October. It takes time for changes in international oil prices to feed through to local prices, and international oil prices declined in September. That’s why the expected figure is 0.3%, half the previous reading.
On Wall Street, Morgan Stanley expects 0.19%, Goldman Sachs 0.21%, and JPMorgan 0.25%.
In other words,
quite a few Wall Street firms also think the figure is more likely to come in below or in line with expectations, with a smaller chance of exceeding them.
As for core CPI, the method used to fill in this month’s data could cause seasonal adjustment factors to be inaccurate.
Once energy and food are excluded, fluctuations in public transportation, clothing, and hotel prices will stand out more. This could cause considerable volatility in the core CPI figure, and it’s also unclear whether it will be revised later.
So core CPI is a little hard to predict. Let’s see what the figures show when they’re released tonight, and I’ll explain them right away.