ETF outflows hit $1.28 billion in a week, with the 200-day moving average right below at $73,200—$BTC is stuck below $75,000, and tonight’s 21:30 CPI will decide what happens next.
The current price is around $74,500. Today it has been grinding back and forth between $74,100 and $75,600, touching $75,500 several times before getting pushed back down. It’s down about 2.4% over 7 days and nearly 10% over 30 days, still 40% below its all-time high of about $126,000. U.S. stocks had their strongest single-day performance since April on Monday, but crypto really didn’t follow along this time.
Here are a few figures from today:
1. Spot ETFs are still seeing net outflows: $201 million on November 9 alone, with outflows totaling $1.48 billion so far in November. Last week, they saw $1.28 billion in outflows in just one week.
2. The 200-day moving average is right below at around $73,200. Sunday’s low was about $73,700, just a step above that level.
3. The 50-week moving average overhead is around $75,600. Today’s high hit right around that level before getting knocked back.
4. Around $269 million in liquidations across the market over 24 hours, with more than 80,000 traders liquidated. The Fear and Greed Index is at 31, still in fear territory.
This whale’s take: Bulls aren’t out of strength so much as afraid to make the first move. The U.S. October CPI comes out tonight at 21:30, with consensus at +0.3% month over month. If it comes in hot, the probability of a rate hike in December—currently close to 80%—could climb further, and the $73,200 level may not hold. If it comes in cool, bears may ease off first, giving bulls a shot at $75,600. Volatility could increase around the release. At levels like these, waiting for the data is better than guessing the direction; watching rate-hike probabilities is much more reliable than trying to call a bottom from the candlesticks.
The current price is around $74,500. Today it has been grinding back and forth between $74,100 and $75,600, touching $75,500 several times before getting pushed back down. It’s down about 2.4% over 7 days and nearly 10% over 30 days, still 40% below its all-time high of about $126,000. U.S. stocks had their strongest single-day performance since April on Monday, but crypto really didn’t follow along this time.
Here are a few figures from today:
1. Spot ETFs are still seeing net outflows: $201 million on November 9 alone, with outflows totaling $1.48 billion so far in November. Last week, they saw $1.28 billion in outflows in just one week.
2. The 200-day moving average is right below at around $73,200. Sunday’s low was about $73,700, just a step above that level.
3. The 50-week moving average overhead is around $75,600. Today’s high hit right around that level before getting knocked back.
4. Around $269 million in liquidations across the market over 24 hours, with more than 80,000 traders liquidated. The Fear and Greed Index is at 31, still in fear territory.
This whale’s take: Bulls aren’t out of strength so much as afraid to make the first move. The U.S. October CPI comes out tonight at 21:30, with consensus at +0.3% month over month. If it comes in hot, the probability of a rate hike in December—currently close to 80%—could climb further, and the $73,200 level may not hold. If it comes in cool, bears may ease off first, giving bulls a shot at $75,600. Volatility could increase around the release. At levels like these, waiting for the data is better than guessing the direction; watching rate-hike probabilities is much more reliable than trying to call a bottom from the candlesticks.
