$BTC A 50-basis-point hike could really happen tonight!
Fed Governor Waller said this afternoon that even if October CPI is better than September's, he still supports a 25-basis-point rate hike in December; if October core CPI is 0.3% or higher, a 50-basis-point hike may be needed. Right after he said this, the market had already fully priced in a 25-basis-point hike in December.
Note: a rate hike. The outlook changed after last Friday's nonfarm payrolls report. Once the 165,000 jobs figure came out, the idea of a rate cut disappeared. Now the only question is whether the increase will be 25 or 50 basis points.
Tonight's CPI report at 21:30 will provide the answer. Core CPI below 0.3% means a 25-basis-point hike; above 0.3% means a 50-basis-point hike.
What would 50 basis points mean? A much bigger liquidity drain. Assets like Bitcoin, which depend on capital inflows, would be hit first.
Look at the charts. Bitcoin is now at 74,908, and has been stuck between 74,000 and 75,600 for the past two days as bulls and bears wait for this data. Beichen's take: rate-hike expectations are already fully priced in. Tonight, the key question isn't whether rates will rise, but by how much.
If core CPI exceeds 0.3%, Bitcoin could fall back to 73,500 or even 72,000. Below 0.3%, the bad news may be fully priced in, opening the door to a rebound to 76,200. Don't trade before the data comes out!
#CPI前瞻，12月利率走向迎关键考验
Fed Governor Waller said this afternoon that even if October CPI is better than September's, he still supports a 25-basis-point rate hike in December; if October core CPI is 0.3% or higher, a 50-basis-point hike may be needed. Right after he said this, the market had already fully priced in a 25-basis-point hike in December.
Note: a rate hike. The outlook changed after last Friday's nonfarm payrolls report. Once the 165,000 jobs figure came out, the idea of a rate cut disappeared. Now the only question is whether the increase will be 25 or 50 basis points.
Tonight's CPI report at 21:30 will provide the answer. Core CPI below 0.3% means a 25-basis-point hike; above 0.3% means a 50-basis-point hike.
What would 50 basis points mean? A much bigger liquidity drain. Assets like Bitcoin, which depend on capital inflows, would be hit first.
Look at the charts. Bitcoin is now at 74,908, and has been stuck between 74,000 and 75,600 for the past two days as bulls and bears wait for this data. Beichen's take: rate-hike expectations are already fully priced in. Tonight, the key question isn't whether rates will rise, but by how much.
If core CPI exceeds 0.3%, Bitcoin could fall back to 73,500 or even 72,000. Below 0.3%, the bad news may be fully priced in, opening the door to a rebound to 76,200. Don't trade before the data comes out!
#CPI前瞻，12月利率走向迎关键考验
