I just can’t do it—I really can’t find a reason to think CPI will improve. Tonight’s CPI figures may be disappointing.
#CPI前瞻，12月利率走向迎关键考验
First, oil prices were on an upward trend from August to October, and the average price was high in October. See Figure 1.
Second, the consumer confidence index for October, released at the end of the month, rebounded. Strong consumption could push prices up by increasing demand. See Figure 2.
Third, the previous nonfarm payrolls data showed that both monthly and annual wage growth were fairly strong. This rapid income growth may be one reason consumer confidence is strong. See Figure 3.
The expected annual rates for headline CPI and core CPI are 3.9% and 2.8%, respectively—both fairly high. However, their expected monthly rates are 0.3% and 0.2%, respectively. Personally, I feel those monthly expectations are overly optimistic.
#CPI前瞻，12月利率走向迎关键考验
First, oil prices were on an upward trend from August to October, and the average price was high in October. See Figure 1.
Second, the consumer confidence index for October, released at the end of the month, rebounded. Strong consumption could push prices up by increasing demand. See Figure 2.
Third, the previous nonfarm payrolls data showed that both monthly and annual wage growth were fairly strong. This rapid income growth may be one reason consumer confidence is strong. See Figure 3.
The expected annual rates for headline CPI and core CPI are 3.9% and 2.8%, respectively—both fairly high. However, their expected monthly rates are 0.3% and 0.2%, respectively. Personally, I feel those monthly expectations are overly optimistic.
