U.S. stocks staged a strong rebound overnight: the S&P 500 rose 2.35%, the Nasdaq gained 2.74%, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index surged 6.85%. Brent crude fell 5.85% to $92.57 as markets began pricing in an easing of U.S.-Iran tensions
1️⃣ AI hardware is once again becoming the main focus for investors
$AMD, $COHR , $CRDO , $MU , and other tech hardware stocks rebounded noticeably. Optical communications, memory, and AI power all strengthened in tandem. This looks like investors buying back in after an oversold slump, but it’s too early to confirm that a new major uptrend has begun
2️⃣ $NVDA fell 4.27% against the trend
The company is investigating reports that Jensen Huang may have been approached by a foreign intelligence agency. The market is reassessing the geopolitical and supply chain risks facing AI leaders, and the sector is beginning to diverge
3️⃣ Falling oil prices don’t mean inflationary pressure is gone
The probability of a Fed rate hike in December remains in the 80%–85% range, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is near 4.86%. Tonight’s U.S. CPI report will be the real test
Also, $TSM is releasing its October revenue today. It’s worth watching closely, as this is an important indicator of whether AI demand can continue to translate into results
I think this rebound is primarily due to a decline in the geopolitical risk premium, followed by a recovery in oversold tech stocks. There hasn’t been a clear increase in domestic investment yet, and a rising index doesn’t mean every sector has sustained opportunities
It’s not wise to chase the rally blindly in the short term. Keep an eye on CPI, TSMC’s revenue, and whether investment flows can spread from leading U.S. tech stocks to second- and third-tier companies in the supply chain. The next two or three trading days will be crucial in determining whether a sustained rally can take shape
DYOR
#cpi前瞻，12月利率走向迎关键考验
1️⃣ AI hardware is once again becoming the main focus for investors
$AMD, $COHR , $CRDO , $MU , and other tech hardware stocks rebounded noticeably. Optical communications, memory, and AI power all strengthened in tandem. This looks like investors buying back in after an oversold slump, but it’s too early to confirm that a new major uptrend has begun
2️⃣ $NVDA fell 4.27% against the trend
The company is investigating reports that Jensen Huang may have been approached by a foreign intelligence agency. The market is reassessing the geopolitical and supply chain risks facing AI leaders, and the sector is beginning to diverge
3️⃣ Falling oil prices don’t mean inflationary pressure is gone
The probability of a Fed rate hike in December remains in the 80%–85% range, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is near 4.86%. Tonight’s U.S. CPI report will be the real test
Also, $TSM is releasing its October revenue today. It’s worth watching closely, as this is an important indicator of whether AI demand can continue to translate into results
I think this rebound is primarily due to a decline in the geopolitical risk premium, followed by a recovery in oversold tech stocks. There hasn’t been a clear increase in domestic investment yet, and a rising index doesn’t mean every sector has sustained opportunities
It’s not wise to chase the rally blindly in the short term. Keep an eye on CPI, TSMC’s revenue, and whether investment flows can spread from leading U.S. tech stocks to second- and third-tier companies in the supply chain. The next two or three trading days will be crucial in determining whether a sustained rally can take shape
DYOR
#cpi前瞻，12月利率走向迎关键考验
