The bullish candle on November 9 stood out. The Dow posted its biggest one-day gain in seven months, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index climbed nearly 7%, and AMD and Applied Materials surged by double digits. On the same screen, $BTC kept ranging between $74,000 and $75,000, briefly touching $75,000 before weakening again. It has now fallen for five straight weeks and dropped below its 50-week moving average, which provided support three times between 2023 and 2025.
The drivers behind this stock-market rally are clear. Hopes for easing tensions between the U.S. and Iran pushed oil prices lower, with Brent falling nearly 6% in a single day. Inflation concerns eased, giving growth stocks some breathing room. In theory, falling oil prices should also be a tailwind for assets that generate no cash flow, but crypto failed to catch it. Last week, U.S. spot BTC ETFs saw net outflows of about $1.28 billion, with ETH ETFs also posting outflows. Strong employment data then pushed the odds of a December rate hike to around 80%. This shadow of higher rates is clearly weighing on crypto prices more than the modest relief from lower oil prices.
The stock-market rebound also looks like an oversold bounce. Nvidia closed lower that day, and the talk of negotiations remained just an expectation voiced by sources. Stocks can trade on sentiment first; after consecutive outflows and a wave of long liquidations, crypto needs real money to come back in.
October CPI is due tonight at 21:30. It is the last inflation report before the December rate decision. Because last year's shutdown means only month-over-month figures are available, there is plenty of room for interpretation, and sharp wicks and liquidations are likely around the release. If the monthly reading is moderate and rate-hike bets ease, the key question will be whether the price can reclaim and hold $75,000. If the data comes in hot, $71,000 and even the 200-week moving average will come back into focus.
In the days after the data is released, it will be more important to watch whether ETF flows can stop bleeding. A single candle can pull the price back up; whether money returns will determine if this crack can close. This is only a personal observation and does not constitute trading advice.
The drivers behind this stock-market rally are clear. Hopes for easing tensions between the U.S. and Iran pushed oil prices lower, with Brent falling nearly 6% in a single day. Inflation concerns eased, giving growth stocks some breathing room. In theory, falling oil prices should also be a tailwind for assets that generate no cash flow, but crypto failed to catch it. Last week, U.S. spot BTC ETFs saw net outflows of about $1.28 billion, with ETH ETFs also posting outflows. Strong employment data then pushed the odds of a December rate hike to around 80%. This shadow of higher rates is clearly weighing on crypto prices more than the modest relief from lower oil prices.
The stock-market rebound also looks like an oversold bounce. Nvidia closed lower that day, and the talk of negotiations remained just an expectation voiced by sources. Stocks can trade on sentiment first; after consecutive outflows and a wave of long liquidations, crypto needs real money to come back in.
October CPI is due tonight at 21:30. It is the last inflation report before the December rate decision. Because last year's shutdown means only month-over-month figures are available, there is plenty of room for interpretation, and sharp wicks and liquidations are likely around the release. If the monthly reading is moderate and rate-hike bets ease, the key question will be whether the price can reclaim and hold $75,000. If the data comes in hot, $71,000 and even the 200-week moving average will come back into focus.
In the days after the data is released, it will be more important to watch whether ETF flows can stop bleeding. A single candle can pull the price back up; whether money returns will determine if this crack can close. This is only a personal observation and does not constitute trading advice.