U.S. October CPI is due out tonight at 21:30 Beijing time. The market is treating this data release like a switch again: if it comes in soft, we bounce; if it comes in hot, we take another hit. That’s a bit naive.
BTC is hovering around $74,500. It briefly touched $75,000 overnight, then quickly pulled back. Over the weekend, it was knocked down to around $73,500, and the bulls got liquidated pretty brutally. But the truly ugly part wasn’t that drop—it was that U.S. stocks recovered on Monday: the Nasdaq gained about 2.7%, and the S&P 500 rallied too, but BTC failed to follow and kept grinding below $75,000. People used to call this “decoupling”; now it looks more like the buyers have disappeared.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of about $1.282 billion last week, their biggest weekly outflow since late June. Even more striking, almost all of it came from BlackRock’s IBIT, accounting for about 95%. IBIT has posted net outflows for six consecutive trading days since October 30, totaling roughly $1.44 billion. Fidelity’s FBTC still recorded around $93 million in net inflows last week, but that wasn’t enough to prop up the whole market. Many people were banking on continued ETF buying to drive a year-end rally. Now that support has weakened.
The market expects tonight’s CPI to show month-over-month growth of about 0.3%, with core CPI at around 0.2%—both slower than in September. Because of last year’s October government shutdown, there’s no year-over-year comparison available this time. A soft reading could give risk assets some short-term relief; a hot one would harden expectations of a December rate hike, and the $73,000 support level would face a serious test. Some analysts see a daily close below $73,000 as a signal of accelerating losses, with $70,000 and even $68,000 as the next levels to watch.
But don’t mistake soft data for a trend reversal. What Bitcoin lacks is real buying power, not a lucky bit of macro relief. Until ETF flows turn positive and the Fed pivots, the path of least resistance is still down. Even if we get a bounce tonight, without renewed inflows, it will most likely just give trapped holders a chance to break even and short-term traders a chance to sell.
Strategy, on the other hand, is still buying. From November 2 to 8, it added another 1,036 BTC at an average price of $79,012, bringing its total holdings to 850,364 BTC, with an average purchase price of about $75,456. The price has already fallen below its cost basis, yet the company is still adding at a higher average price. This isn’t good news that “institutions are all buying the dip”—it’s a company treasury tying itself to a downtrend that hasn’t run its course.
Support lies in the $73,000–$74,400 range. Tonight, watch the data first, but pay even closer attention to whether ETFs continue to bleed over the following days. Data can shape sentiment; only buy orders can shape the trend.
#Bitcoin #CPI
BTC is hovering around $74,500. It briefly touched $75,000 overnight, then quickly pulled back. Over the weekend, it was knocked down to around $73,500, and the bulls got liquidated pretty brutally. But the truly ugly part wasn’t that drop—it was that U.S. stocks recovered on Monday: the Nasdaq gained about 2.7%, and the S&P 500 rallied too, but BTC failed to follow and kept grinding below $75,000. People used to call this “decoupling”; now it looks more like the buyers have disappeared.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of about $1.282 billion last week, their biggest weekly outflow since late June. Even more striking, almost all of it came from BlackRock’s IBIT, accounting for about 95%. IBIT has posted net outflows for six consecutive trading days since October 30, totaling roughly $1.44 billion. Fidelity’s FBTC still recorded around $93 million in net inflows last week, but that wasn’t enough to prop up the whole market. Many people were banking on continued ETF buying to drive a year-end rally. Now that support has weakened.
The market expects tonight’s CPI to show month-over-month growth of about 0.3%, with core CPI at around 0.2%—both slower than in September. Because of last year’s October government shutdown, there’s no year-over-year comparison available this time. A soft reading could give risk assets some short-term relief; a hot one would harden expectations of a December rate hike, and the $73,000 support level would face a serious test. Some analysts see a daily close below $73,000 as a signal of accelerating losses, with $70,000 and even $68,000 as the next levels to watch.
But don’t mistake soft data for a trend reversal. What Bitcoin lacks is real buying power, not a lucky bit of macro relief. Until ETF flows turn positive and the Fed pivots, the path of least resistance is still down. Even if we get a bounce tonight, without renewed inflows, it will most likely just give trapped holders a chance to break even and short-term traders a chance to sell.
Strategy, on the other hand, is still buying. From November 2 to 8, it added another 1,036 BTC at an average price of $79,012, bringing its total holdings to 850,364 BTC, with an average purchase price of about $75,456. The price has already fallen below its cost basis, yet the company is still adding at a higher average price. This isn’t good news that “institutions are all buying the dip”—it’s a company treasury tying itself to a downtrend that hasn’t run its course.
Support lies in the $73,000–$74,400 range. Tonight, watch the data first, but pay even closer attention to whether ETFs continue to bleed over the following days. Data can shape sentiment; only buy orders can shape the trend.
#Bitcoin #CPI
