Tonight (November 10 at 9:30 p.m. Beijing time, 8:30 a.m. Eastern time), the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October will be released. This is the final inflation report before the Federal Reserve’s December 9 policy meeting, and the market sees it as a key basis for judging whether rates will be raised in December.

How can a single data release move the entire market?

The CPI measures price changes in a basket of goods and services, making it the most direct window into inflation. Rising inflation means expectations of interest rate hikes grow; when rates rise, risk-free returns become more attractive, and money flows out of non-yielding assets like Bitcoin. The market will reprice this chain of effects tonight.

Crypto Market Performance

Bitcoin (BTC) is fluctuating around $74,700, while Ethereum (ETH) is hovering around $2,119. The latest pullback is driven by a reversal in macro interest rate expectations, compounded by net outflows from spot ETFs. On October 30, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $643 million in net outflows in a single day, the largest daily total since June.

How does the data affect your holdings?

The logic is straightforward: CPI comes in higher than expected, increasing the likelihood of rate hikes or rates staying higher for longer. Treasury yields rise, funds move out of risk assets, and the crypto market comes under pressure. Conversely, a lower-than-expected reading can ease market sentiment. But this is just a chain reaction at the price level; it does not indicate a particular market direction.

What should you watch tonight?

First, watch the gap between headline and core inflation; if they diverge, the interpretation changes accordingly. Second, see whether the consensus figure priced in by the market is surpassed. Third, watch whether Bitcoin can hold the $74,000–$75,000 range after the data is released. Looking at all three signals together is more useful than focusing on a single price move.

Volatility may increase before and after the data release, so manage your position size and trading pace.#CPI前瞻，12月利率走向迎关键考验 #BTC #Ethereum