Let me start with the bottom line: I’m not going to guess which way the market will move before tonight’s CPI report. Whether 75,000 can hold matters more than any news.
Here’s why: Bitcoin has closed down for five straight weekly candles. Last week, a sell-off in AI chip stocks hit crypto too, triggering over $1 billion in liquidations in 24 hours, while IBIT saw outflows for several days in a row. Most concerning of all, interest rate futures are pricing in roughly an 80% chance of a rate hike in December. That makes tonight’s CPI report a real make-or-break moment.
If the numbers come in hot, rate hike expectations will be confirmed, and 75,000 will very likely be tested again. Last night, the price hit a low of 73,750. If that level breaks, it’s hard to say how far it could fall.
If the numbers come in below expectations, bears will likely cover first. 77,000 has repeatedly capped the price over the past few days; getting above it would finally give the market some breathing room.
I took a look at the market this morning: BTC was chopping around 75,000, ETH was just above 2,100, and SOL had fallen even more than Bitcoin, down to around 86. In this kind of market, it’s easy to get hit from both sides—the price dips suddenly, then bounces right back. That’s how most people using high leverage get shaken out.
My own rule is not to get trigger-happy on big data nights. If you really have to use leverage, don’t go above 10x, and keep your position small enough to sleep comfortably. There’ll be other days in the market; staying in the game matters more than anything.
One more interesting thing: Jensen Huang at Nvidia is trending. Sentiment around US tech stocks is already fragile, and crypto is tracking the Nasdaq so closely right now that we’ll need to keep an eye on the US market open tonight too.
Do you think tonight’s CPI will be bullish or bearish? Share your reasoning in the comments and let’s talk.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#黄仁勋因婚外情致歉，英伟达启动独立调查 #CPI前瞻，12月利率走向迎关键考验 #BTC #ETH
Here’s why: Bitcoin has closed down for five straight weekly candles. Last week, a sell-off in AI chip stocks hit crypto too, triggering over $1 billion in liquidations in 24 hours, while IBIT saw outflows for several days in a row. Most concerning of all, interest rate futures are pricing in roughly an 80% chance of a rate hike in December. That makes tonight’s CPI report a real make-or-break moment.
If the numbers come in hot, rate hike expectations will be confirmed, and 75,000 will very likely be tested again. Last night, the price hit a low of 73,750. If that level breaks, it’s hard to say how far it could fall.
If the numbers come in below expectations, bears will likely cover first. 77,000 has repeatedly capped the price over the past few days; getting above it would finally give the market some breathing room.
I took a look at the market this morning: BTC was chopping around 75,000, ETH was just above 2,100, and SOL had fallen even more than Bitcoin, down to around 86. In this kind of market, it’s easy to get hit from both sides—the price dips suddenly, then bounces right back. That’s how most people using high leverage get shaken out.
My own rule is not to get trigger-happy on big data nights. If you really have to use leverage, don’t go above 10x, and keep your position small enough to sleep comfortably. There’ll be other days in the market; staying in the game matters more than anything.
One more interesting thing: Jensen Huang at Nvidia is trending. Sentiment around US tech stocks is already fragile, and crypto is tracking the Nasdaq so closely right now that we’ll need to keep an eye on the US market open tonight too.
Do you think tonight’s CPI will be bullish or bearish? Share your reasoning in the comments and let’s talk.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#黄仁勋因婚外情致歉，英伟达启动独立调查 #CPI前瞻，12月利率走向迎关键考验 #BTC #ETH
