📅 US CPI Tomorrow: Core Inflation Is the Number for $BTC and $XAU 📊
🕗 Tuesday, Nov 10, 8:30 AM ET (13:30 UTC)
The October Consumer Price Index is the last major inflation reading before the Fed’s Dec 8-9 meeting, where a hike is priced at about 80% 🏛️
📈 Headline CPI (MoM): forecast about +0.2-0.3% | previous +0.6%
🔍 Core CPI (MoM): forecast +0.2% | previous +0.3%
⚠️ There will be no year-over-year figure this time, because October 2025 data is missing after the government shutdown.
🎯 Prediction markets (Kalshi and Polymarket) for core CPI:
• 0.1% or less: 13%
• 0.2%: 47%
• 0.3%: 30%
• 0.4% or more: 10%

So about a 60% chance core comes in at 0.2% or lower, and about 40% at 0.3% or higher.
⛽ Gasoline drove September’s jump, and oil has since fallen about 16% in a week, so the headline is expected to cool.
💥 Impact on $BTC and $XAU: a hot core print (0.3%+) would raise December hike odds, lift the dollar and yields, and pressure both. A soft print would ease that pressure.

Which core number do you expect: 0.2% or 0.3%? 👇

#CPI #Inflation #Fed #Bitcoin #Gold
Question: Core CPI (MoM): above or below 0.2%?