XRP is facing significant selling pressure, with its price trading 55.2% below its one-year high. However, new research from Bitrue Research Institute highlights an interesting historical pattern: XRP has frequently recovered over the following 90 days after reaching deeply oversold conditions.
The study examines XRP/USDT data dating back to January 2023 and identifies several important signals traders should monitor.
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The research identified 18 occasions since 2023 when XRP's daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) dropped below 35.
Among the 17 readings with complete 90-day data:
- 12 cases ended with XRP trading higher.
- Historical recovery frequency: approximately 70.6%.
- Across all days during the same period, XRP was higher after 90 days in approximately 53.5% of cases.
However, the results were not equally strong across every timeframe. Over 60 days, oversold readings did not outperform ordinary trading days.
The study also found that recoveries rarely happened immediately. XRP frequently experienced additional declines before eventually moving higher.
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Bitrue AI identifies deeply oversold conditions on both the daily and 4-hour charts.
Key observations:
- 4-hour RSI: 24.
- XRP remains significantly below its one-year high.
- Current AI working price range: $1.0365–$1.1803.
- The market still faces risks of both a sharp rebound and further downside.
The RSI reading indicates strong selling pressure, but it does not independently confirm that XRP has reached a market bottom.
Historical Recovery Pattern: Base First, Then Rebound,
One of the study's most important findings concerns how XRP historically transitions from oversold conditions into recovery.
The research found that XRP never moved directly from similar conditions into a confirmed uptrend.
Within 10 days:
- A trading range formed first in 43.9% of cases.
- A confirmed downtrend came first in 49.6% of cases.
This suggests that sideways consolidation and base-building have often played an important role before a sustainable recovery begins.
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Bitrue Research Institute identifies three conditions that could indicate buyers are returning:
1. Volume Confirmation: Buying volume on up days needs to exceed selling volume on down days. Over the past 20 days, down-day volume has been approximately twice up-day volume.
2. OBV Recovery: On-Balance Volume (OBV) needs to turn positive while price stabilizes. Currently, OBV is still declining, suggesting accumulation has not been confirmed.
3. Price Breakout: XRP needs a daily close above $1.1803, the upper boundary of Bitrue AI's current working range.
Importantly, none of these three confirmation signals was present when the report was published.
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Historical data suggests that XRP's oversold conditions could create recovery opportunities, but the research does not confirm that a bottom is already in place.
The most important development will be whether XRP establishes a stable trading range, buying volume improves, OBV turns higher, and price eventually breaks above $1.1803.
Consideration: The historical sample contains fewer than 20 events, so its recovery statistics should be treated as context rather than a prediction. Further downside remains possible before any sustained rebound.
Past performance does not guarantee future results.
